Abstract

WANG, Y G. A new method for long-term safety analysis of marine structures. J. S. Afr. Inst. Civ. Eng. [online]. 2023, vol.65, n.4, pp.10-22. ISSN 2309-8775.  http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2309-8775/2023/v65n4a2.

This paper proposes to utilise a new adaptive kernel density estimation (KDE) method based on a linear diffusion process for fitting the significant wave height data in order to calculate the sea state parameter distribution tails more accurately, particularly the higher, more extreme values. The accuracy of the proposed method has been demonstrated based on fittings to two measured ocean wave datasets. This proposed method has subsequently been utilised for deriving accurate 50-year and 500-year environmental contour lines. The advantages of using a more reliable contour line derived from using the proposed new method for long-term safety analysis of marine structures have been substantiated.

Keywords : marine structures; adaptive kernel density estimation; linear diffusion process; long-term; dynamic analysis; sea severity.

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