Abstract

MOTSUMI, Masego M.  and  NEMAKONDE, Livhuwani D.. Indigenous early warning indicators for improving natural hazard predictions. Jàmbá [online]. 2025, vol.17, n.1, pp.1-12. ISSN 1996-1421.  https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v17i1.1754.

Indigenous knowledge plays a crucial role in predicting hazardous events, particularly for rural communities who are not reached by conventional early warning systems. Historical knowledge of hazard occurrence stored in the repository of these communities combined with their ability to observe environmental indicators, enhances their preparedness for, response to, and recovery from disasters. This study sought to gain insights into the Indigenous indicators used by rural communities in the Joe Morolong Local Municipality, Northern Cape, South Africa, to predict natural hazards, and explores how these indicators could complement meteorological seasonal climate and weather forecasts. The study was conducted in Joe Morolong Local Municipality, Northern Cape, South Africa. A phenomenological approach, which is a form of qualitative research design, was employed, with data collected through focus group discussions and virtual interviews with key informants, involving 109 participants. The findings reveal that communities rely on various environmental signs, including changes in vegetation, lunar cycles, cloud formations, bird behaviors, and wind speed and direction, to predict and anticipate hazardous events. These traditional methods, refined over generations, provide localised, trusted, and contextually relevant early warning systems that enhance disaster preparedness. By recognising and integrating these Indigenous indicators with meteorological forecasts, disaster risk management efforts can be strengthened, ensuring that rural communities have more comprehensive and effective tools for mitigating the risks and impacts of natural hazards. CONTRIBUTION: This study emphasises the value of Indigenous knowledge as a vital resource for enhancing disaster and climate resilience, as well as improving early warning systems.

Keywords : natural hazards; Indigenous knowledge (IK); indigenous early warning indicators; seasonal climate and weather forecast; disasters; complementary.

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