Resumo

COETZEE, Eben. The Iranian nuclear file: Implications for Israel's national security after 7 October 2023 (Part I). Tydskr. geesteswet. [online]. 2025, vol.65, n.4, pp.1078-1097. ISSN 2224-7912.  https://doi.org/10.17159/2224-7912/2025/v65n4a7.

The spectre of a nuclear-armed Iran continues to loom large. For the last two decades or so, Western officials and leaders have repeatedly stressed that a nuclear-armed Iran constitutes a uniquely terrifying prospect. In particular, the United States of America (USA) and Israel have forthrightly declared that an Iranian nuclear weapon amounts to an existential threat and cannot and will not be tolerated. Western fears that Iran is fast approaching weaponization of its civilian nuclear program caused the US and Israel to strike several Iranian nuclear facilities during June 2025, with the jury still out on how effective these strikes were in destroying (or merely delaying) the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Although Iran insists that its nuclear program is geared towards generating nuclear energy (hence, for peaceful purposes), there is overwhelming evidence that Teheran has actively pursued weaponization of its nuclear program. Whether Iran has in recent years ceased or merely halted its nuclear weapons program remains controversial. What is clear, however, is that Tehran has over the last two decades invested quite heavily in infrastructure and (dual-use) technologies, along with uranium enrichment exceeding thresholds for civilian nuclear use, that leads observers to believe that imminent weaponisation is possible - or, at the very least, was possible prior to the American and Israeli attacks. Fears about the imminence of an Iranian nuclear weapon and the destruction (i.e., a presumed nuclear attack on American or Israeli targets) that is widely believed to follow are, of course, nothing new. However, in the wake of the Hamas terror attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, such fears proliferated, especially given Hamas's and other terrorist groups ' well-known ties to Iran. Now more than ever American and Israeli officials were convinced that a nuclear-armed Iran posed an existential threat, one that must be eliminated at all costs. Ever since the spectre of an Iranian nuclear weapon surfaced, the same set of concerns have predominated Western security thinking and assessments. In the main, fears about impending peril and doom in the wake of the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon turn on three key concerns. First, an Iranian nuclear weapon will afford Tehran with a nuclear shield under which its support of proxy wars and terrorism will be ramped up. Second, a nuclear-armed Iran will transfer nuclear weapons to like-minded terrorists. And three, a full-blown nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran will follow, with Iran cast in the role of aggressor. This article will probe the first of these concerns and will be guided by two research questions: first, what are the national security implications for Israel in light of a nuclear-armed Iran, with specific reference to a possible increase in Iranian support of proxy wars and terrorism? And two, in what ways, if any, has the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 altered or reinforced Israeli and American assessments that an Iranian nuclear shield will lead to increased support of proxy wars and terror? A literature and policy-centred analysis of the behaviour and objectives of Iranian foreign policy will guide this study. The first part of the study will probe the motivations and objectives of the Iranian nuclear weapons programme, noting that the Iranian search for the bomb predates the Islamic Revolution of1979. This will be followed by considering the spectre of increased proxy wars and terrorism under an Iranian nuclear shield, after which the discussion will be framed against the backdrop of the events of 7 October 2023. In the final section, I will emphasize key insights and conclusions in relation to Israel's national security landscape and briefly consider the implications of the Israeli and American attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure for the future of the Iranian nuclear (weapons) programme.

Palavras-chave : Iran; nuclear weapons; Israel, October 7, 2023; nuclear shield; nuclear terrorism; proxy wars; terrorism; Hamas; Hezbollah.

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