Resumo

SENEKAL, Burgert. Deterrence in the context of contemporary strategic competition: Lessons from Ukraine. Tydskr. geesteswet. [online]. 2025, vol.65, n.4, pp.1040-1057. ISSN 2224-7912.  https://doi.org/10.17159/2224-7912/2025/v65n4a5.

This article examines the effectiveness of deterrence as a security strategy in the context of contemporary strategic competition, focusing on the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and its implications for smaller states. Following the Cold War, NATO expanded eastward, incorporating former Soviet-controlled states. While Western European nations held diverse views of Russia, Eastern European states, especially those with a history of Russian or Soviet occupation, view it as a primary threat. Russia, on the other hand, maintain a view of ongoing conflict with the West and blamed NATO for global instability. Russia's increasingly aggressive actions, including the 2008 invasion of Georgia, the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and subsequent conflicts in Donbas, marked a paradigm shift in European security. These events, along with increased military activity and hybrid tactics such as cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, heighten concerns among NATO members and prompt a reassessment of the security environment. Deterrence, a military strategy aimed at preventing aggression by increasing perceived risks, gained prominence in the context of contemporary strategic competition. It relies on the defender's capability, credibility, and communication of its willingness to respond to aggression. Deterrence can take three forms: deterrence by denial (convincing the aggressor that their actions will fail), deterrence by punishment (threatening severe consequences), and extended deterrence (relying on allies' support). The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed the limitations of deterrence against determined adversaries. Russia's willingness to incur significant losses challenged Western assumptions and highlighted the need for robust and adaptable defence strategies. The war furthermore underscores the importance of formal defence agreements for smaller states. Ukraine's lack of NATO membership limits its deterrence options, while Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO demonstrates the benefits of collective defence. The conflict also reaffirms the importance of credible military power, including air superiority and advanced weaponry, but in addition highlights the need for sufficient supplies and a robust defence industry to sustain a protracted conflict. Lastly, the war reaffirmed that clear and consistent communication of defence commitments and the potential consequences of aggression are vital for effective deterrence. Ambiguity can lead to misinterpretation and escalation. The Ukraine war has reaffirmed but also reshaped the understanding of deterrence in the context of contemporary strategic competition. It has emphasized the need for smaller states to maintain credible military capabilities, engage in clear communication, and foster strong alliances for extended deterrence. Additionally, the conflict has highlighted the enduring relevance of conventional forces, technological advancements, and the importance of accurately assessing an adversary's cost-benefit calculus and risk tolerance. These lessons will be crucial in shaping effective deterrence strategies and maintaining stability in an increasingly uncertain world.

Palavras-chave : deterrence; military; NATO; Ukraine; Russia; strategy; security; the West.

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