Resumo

HERMAN, Fanie. Reasons for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2030: A strategic framework from a Chinese nationalist perspective. Tydskr. geesteswet. [online]. 2025, vol.65, n.4, pp.1003-1020. ISSN 2224-7912.  https://doi.org/10.17159/2224-7912/2025/v65n4a3.

In recent decades, there has been intense interest in China's role in international politics. There is a particular focus on the drivers of foreign policy and the reasons for China's international behaviour. Regarding the Taiwan crisis, studies have been undertaken that attempt to find answers for strategy, policy, military dominance, hegemony, and economic diplomacy. The modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the means that will be used to militarily take over Taiwan are prominent. The invasion of Taiwan poses a great risk for China, because such an action runs counter to the country's economic and international transformation goals. The main goal of the transformation is to place the military and the Chinese nation at the forefront of the international community. By 2049, China must be a main technological leader in the world and in control of a new world order. There is also the argument that Xi's statements are political rhetoric that will have no global consequences. However, China's culture and history are thousands of years old, which gives greater value and impact to Xi's statements. The Chinese Communist Party has successfully achieved sovereignty over Hong Kong and Macau. The people of China view this takeover as a strong indication that sovereignty over Taiwan can also be achieved. Reunification with Taiwan has been in the balance for decades and cannot be postponed indefinitely, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to determine exactly what China'splanned course of action is. A predictive and realistic approach is needed to exercise restraint and to prevent Taiwan from following the same path as Hong Kong. Taiwan's role as a guardian of democracy and human rights in Asia is important to bringing stability to the region and Taiwan's falling under the communist control of China must be prevented at all costs. From the perspective of the One-China Principle, China and Taiwan are historically one country and reunification is the only way to unite the Chinese nation. This argument is of course contested in various quarters, including the citizens and current government of Taiwan who claim that Taiwan has developed its own identity and does not want to be subjugated by the government of Beijing. An invasion of Taiwan will have dire geopolitical consequences for the region and the world. The first is that an invasion will have long-term economic consequences for Taiwan. Second, an invasion could lead to increased tensions in the region and countries banding together to form an alliance against China. Third, an invasion could lead to punishment of China by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Fourth, an invasion could lead to the severing of trading ties with the European Union and lastly, a war in the Taiwan Strait would not only be a human tragedy, but would destroy trade worth 2.6 trillion United States dollars. A shortcoming in the literature is the establishment of a strategic time frame that China will follow to carry out the invasion. For the purposes of my investigation, this strategic framework is considered as the research problem. There are three questions that provide answers to the research problem: When will the invasion happen, how will the invasion take place and what will the international reaction to the invasion be? The premise of this article is that President Xi Jinping has a strategic framework to annex Taiwan by 2030. President Xi's cult of personality and China's demographic makeup play a major role in this ambition. In theory it can be argued that Xi Jinping's ambition to reunify Taiwan with the motherland rests on three foundations. These are the use of the army, the influence of Xi's personality style and life expectancy, and the role that the people of China play in realizing the dream. The three factors provide a strategic harbinger that if President Xi continues to pursue annexation, the army will be ready to invade the island by 2027. Xi is likely to take steps to realise this ambition by 2030. This is seen against the backdrop of China's ageing population and Xi's legacy. The article first examines the current situation, then explains the fundamental factors contributing to Xi's strategic window of opportunity, and concludes with geopolitical implications for the region and the world.

Palavras-chave : China-Taiwan conflict; unification; Xi Jinping; democracy; totalitarianism; geostrategic goals.

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