Resumo

MATTHEE, Heinrich. Political transitional crisis and trumpets of civil war: a comparison between France and the USA. Tydskr. geesteswet. [online]. 2025, vol.65, n.4, pp.976-1002. ISSN 2224-7912.  https://doi.org/10.17159/2224-7912/2025/v65n4a2.

In the 1970s and 1980s, Western political systems, particularly in countries like France and the United States of America (USA), were still rooted in relatively cohesive national identities and shared cultural heritages. However, by the 2020s, both countries are experiencing a political transition crisis marked by increasing polarization, weakening of traditional political parties, and declining trust in political institutions. This ongoing shift has raised serious concerns about the resilience and future of these democratic systems. A key indicator of this crisis is the significant loss of social capital in both France and the USA, leading to deep political and social divisions. The center ground in politics has eroded, giving way to growing factionalism. Great numbers of citizens feel disconnected from their governments and perceive existing political institutions as unresponsive or illegitimate. Furthermore, demographic changes - including declining birth rates among native populations and the continued influx of illegal migrants from non-Western countries - have intensified societal tensions. These developments have fueled concerns among many citizens, taxpayers and voters about being displaced from their ecological niche or sociopolitical position. Many perceive a threat to their social status, political influence, demographic primacy and cultural identity. Such anxieties are compounded by ideological clashes over issues like multiculturalism, immigration, remigration and national identity. Debates around these issues have become highly polarised in academic and public discourse. The term "Great Replacement" has been stigmatised in parts of academia, although major sections of the French and American population accept such replacement or displacement as a present reality or future possibility. However, as Sedgwick (2024) indicates, already in the late twentieth century, historians, demographers and political scientists ranging from Michel Teitelbaum and Jay Winter to Samuel Huntington and Walter Laqueur have addressed this theme with similar conclusions, while the UN even produced a research note in 2000 on "replacement migration". Scholars studying the roots and manifestations ofpolitical violence in diverse, multicultural societies have to navigate attempts at censorship, self-censorship, ideological backlash, and even intimidation, which hampers effective analysis and policy response. Historically, civil wars were studied in the context of non-Western societies or as theoretical scenarios posited by fringe voices in Western literature and extremist circles. However, by the 2020s, a growing number of citizens in France and the USA, mainstream politicians like Emmanuel Macron and Nancy Pelosi, and political scientists like Barbara Walter and David Betz have begun to mention the possibility of serious domestic conflict - even civil war - as plausible. This change reflects a dramatic shift in political consciousness and indicates a significant deterioration in social cohesion. In both France and the United States, political and ideological factionalization has reached unprecedented levels. In the USA, the nature of political violence has shifted, with right-wing extremism now more prevalent than left-wing extremism. In France, Islamist extremism represents the most significant threat. Both nations have experienced rising levels of civil unrest, including rioting and terrorism, indicating a wider acceptance or normalisation of political violence. These developments support the theories of Cederman, Hechter and Okamoto suggesting that political violence can erupt when one group perceives itself as losing status, power, or influence to another or when they are edged out of their ecological niche. This is especially true in societies undergoing rapid demographic and ideological changes that threaten long-standing culturescapes. If political violence escalates in France or the U.S. in the near future, it is likely to manifest in localised and temporally limited ways, such as urban riots or militia-style attacks on state targets. Acts of political sabotage, targeted assassinations, or ideologically driven crimes may also become more common. Cultural and ideological symbols are particularly vulnerable in France, where they are more explicitly targeted. In both countries, demographic shifts, perceptions of cultural displacement, sudden status loss, and unwanted transformations serve as powerful catalysts for mobilisation and conflict. Scholars like David Betz and Barbara Walter have issued timely warnings about these trends. Though Betz suggests civil war is a near certainty, this article argues otherwise. Civil war is not inevitable. Current conditions in both France and the USA lack the organizational fighting groups typically associated with civil war. However, the role of law enforcement and security services in such volatile environments will be of key significance in deterrence, prevention and containment. Concerns remain about how political divisions might affect the operational unity of security forces during tense periods. In the US, strong-arm tactics by the Trump II administration are trying to weaken, stop or remove some of the perceived causes of future civil conflicts. However, they are also likely to deepen concerns among political opponents about the constitutional system and among some security force leaders about partisanship in civil-military relations. The outcome of the ongoing transition crisis remains contingent and subject to multiple variables, including the choices and strategies of political leaders, unforeseen events, and structural shifts in society, sociopolitical settlements, and the relative authority and legitimacy of authorities in different areas of national territories. Even if sustained political violence were to occur, governments and mainstream commentators would likely hesitate to acknowledge it as a civil war. Nevertheless, the rising focus on civil war as a serious concern among both political leaders and the general public clearly indicates a transition crisis. The interplay of increased sociopolitical factionalism, non-acceptance of political authority and forms of intimidation and violence poses a significant but often overlooked strategic risk to the domestic stability of Western political orders. The outcomes of the transitional crises in France and the USA will to a large degree depend on new policy approaches and political actors competent enough to deal with the challenges of their finite political orders.

Palavras-chave : Asymmetric multiculturalism; civil war; cultural targets; threshold effects; struggle for authority; displacement; Great Replacement; ideological horizon; mass migration; polarization; political factionalism; transitional crisis; urban-rural divisions.

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