Resumo

EKSTEEN, Riaan. Reflection on Brexit: Repercussions after nine years. Tydskr. geesteswet. [online]. 2025, vol.65, n.3, pp.852-879. ISSN 2224-7912.  https://doi.org/10.17159/2224-7912/2025/v65n3a6.

Brexit resulted in significant and enduring repercussions for the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU), fostering a highly volatile environment that has persisted for nine years after the referendum. The expected economic advantages of exiting the EU predominantly did not come to fruition, resulting in the view of Brexit as a politically detrimental choice. The consequences of Brexit are complex, impacting on the economy, politics, and social relations of the UK. Brexit has transformed the political landscape of the UK. Mainstream political parties embraced more stringent positions about immigration and national identity. The normalisation of these perspectives has fostered a more polarised political climate. Brexit has unsettled the fragile political equilibrium in Northern Ireland. Public sentiment towards Brexit continues to be polarised. Although some continue to endorse its advantages, numerous individuals recognise its disadvantages and want stronger connections with the EU. Brexit substantially impeded the UK's economic performance. The UK economy is currently approximately 4% smaller than it would have been had it continued its membership in the EU. This decrease is evident in multiple significant indicators. Exports and imports declined due to the intricacy of new trade obstacles, which impeded the operational efficiency of UK enterprises, resulting in elevated costs and diminished competitiveness. Business investment levels are over 30% diminished compared to pre-referendum trends, signifying a substantial decline in economic confidence and growth potential. The immediate consequences of the referendum resulted in a significant decline in the British pound (£), causing heightened inflation rates. Estimates indicate that Brexit-related inflation has incurred an annual cost of approximately £404 for the average British family. Currently, the average person is almost £2 000 poorer because of these economic alterations. Numerous enterprises indicate heightened operating difficulties resulting from new rules and documentation requirements. Customs declarations have increased threefold since exiting the single market, thereby escalating expenses, especially for small businesses that find it challenging to accommodate these extra obligations. The enduring consequences are unfolding as public sentiment shifts and businesses adjust to a new environment beyond the EU. The long term economic repercussions of Brexit on the UK have been substantial and predominantly adverse, influencing multiple aspects of the economy, such as trade, investment, productivity, and total economic growth. Brexit has resulted in heightened trade obstacles between the UK and the EU, its principal economic partner. Substantial declines in company investment transpired alongside stagnant productivity growth and a general deterioration of the UK economy. The repercussions reflect the difficulty presently encountered by the UK as it adapts to its new status outside the EU and emphasises the intricacy of separating Brexit's effects from other global economic influences. Virtually all sectors of society have undergone some form of disruption, and the sociocultural effects are significant, influencing daily life. Although certain sectors may evolve, the immediate repercussions have predominantly been adverse to both the economy and public mood. Brexit has caused significant manpower shortages in multiple sectors, especially those dependent on EU workers, which includes hospitality, agriculture, and logistics. The cessation of free movement has resulted in a net decrease in immigration from the EU, intensifying current workforce issues. Brexit has profoundly influenced the UK's education industry, impacting student mobility, funding, institutional collaborations, and the entire higher education environment. It complicates visa procedures for prospective students, disrupts research funding and collaborations, and necessitates alterations in curricular standards. These trends provide considerable challenges for UK institutions as they have to contend with a transformed environment characterised by heightened rivalry for overseas students and possible reductions in academic variety and quality. The likelihood of the UK rejoining the EU is minimal. Negotiations would be prolonged, and the terms would be less favourable. Fundamental principles, including those related to the EC, will have to be relinquished. The sceptical segment of the public will have to be persuaded of a reversal, which is seen as impractical at this juncture. Moreover, the EU is experiencing its transformation, anticipated to extend eastward and augment its fiscal needs. The most promising domain for collaboration between the UK and the EU seems to be security and defence, which the Labour Party highlighted in their electoral campaign as a security partnership. Enhanced trade relations with the EU are crucial to Sir Keir Starmer's principal aim offostering economic growth and initiating a new strategy for the EU. It will necessitate an extended endeavour. Even if he sought to reverse certain elements of Brexit, the complete annulment of its provisions would prove to be an arduous endeavour; he would quickly realise that, from the EU's perspective, his authority is quite limited. Moreover, sir Keir Starmer is facing internal political pressure from impatient Eurosceptics who doubt his commitment to the nation's interests. The disenchanted bureaucracy in Brussels awaits him, fatigued by the entire Brexit fiasco.

Palavras-chave : Brexit; Conservative Party; customs union; economic consequences; European Union; Labour Party; political impact; prime ministers; single market; United Kingdom.

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