Jordaan, A. J.; Sakulski; D.; Jordaan, A. D.
ABSTRACT
Interdisciplinary drought risk assessment provides the true reflection of drought risk by integrating hazard data with adaptation, vulnerability and coping capacity. Traditional methods for drought risk calculation based purely on meteorological extremes do not provide an accurate reflection of disaster drought. Communal farmers in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa, experience disaster droughts regularly; even normal dry periods are experienced as disaster droughts. ]]> This research rejects the hypothesis of climate change as the reason for increased drought in the Northern Cape but rather highlight vulnerability and lack of coping capacity as the main sources of disaster droughts, especially amongst communal farmers in the Northern Cape.
1. INTRODUCTION
Everybody in agriculture acknowledges climatic extremes and the fact that they will experience future dry and wet periods. It is just a matter of when and how severe. The challenge is to prevent dry periods from developing into disaster droughts through adaptation, increased coping capacity and decreased vulnerability. Vulnerability and the resilience of the agricultural sector are key factors and any drought strategy should emphasize increased resilience against droughts amongst all role players in agriculture.
The national disaster management framework (NDMF) in South Africa is clear on the need for disaster risk assessments as one of the key performance areas for any disaster risk reduction strategy (drought in this case). Scientists acknowledge the fact that drought assessment cannot be done by looking at precipitation, evaporation and transpiration alone since these are variables used for the drought hazard assessment and not total drought risk. Adaptation, vulnerability and resilience linked to drought shocks are key to the assessment of drought risk (Wilhite, Easterling & Wood, 1987; Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon & Davis, 2004; Wilhite, Svoboda & Hayes, 2007, Jordaan, 2012). Climate change and future climate scenarios receive much attention lately, yet Gbetibouo and Ringler (2009) report on the vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and they mention the lack of vulnerability assessments at regional level as one of the major gaps in climate risk assessments.
Communal and small-scale farmers in South Africa are particularly vulnerable to drought shocks and they experience normal dry periods as drought disasters. As part of a study to complete the drought risk assessment for the Northern Cape Province in South Africa, the high levels of vulnerability and low coping capacity amongst communal small-scale farmers were clearly exposed (Jordaan, Sakulski, Jordaan, 2011). Under usual climatic conditions, communal farmers experienced normal dry periods as disaster droughts.
This paper highlights the importance of an interdisciplinary drought risk assessment that exposes the vulnerability and coping capacity of the different agricultural sectors. Reasons for high vulnerability and low coping capacity to drought amongst communal small-scale farmers are discussed and analyzed with some recommendations to address the problem.
2. STUDY AREA BACKGROUND
]]> With 372 882 sq km land, the Northern Cape (NC) is the largest of the nine provinces in South Africa, taking up to 30.5% of South Africa's land with just more than 2% of the total population living in the province. The Northern Cape landscape is characterized by vast arid and semi-arid plains covered with grass in the Kalahari and low shrub land in most of the province. Most of the province is in a summer rainfall region with only a narrow strip along the west coast receiving winter rains. Annual mean precipitation for the province is 200mm with only 20mm per annum in the far west and up to 540mm in the east of the province. The weather conditions in the province are extreme with extreme cold and frost (<-10 deg C) during winter in the southern parts of the province and extreme heat during summer (>40 deg C) in the regions bordering Namibia (South Africa Info., 2011).The main farming system in the Northern Cape is extensive commercial livestock farming with pockets of communal farmers concentrated in John Taole Gaetsewe (JTG), municipality, Riemvasmaak, Richtersveld, Mier en Leliefontein. In addition, communal farmers are present on most of the rural municipal land. The province has fertile agricultural land along the Orange River valley where high value products are produced utilizing irrigation water from the Orange River, the largest river in South Africa.
A map of the province showing the different regions is shown in Fig.1 below.
3. PROBLEM STATEMENT
In spite of the fact that drought risk is determined by vulnerability, adaptation and coping capacity to dry periods, these factors are not properly built into the current criteria for disaster drought declaration. Each province uses its own criteria and in many cases political influence determines the outcome of drought relief (de Bruin, 2010, Smit, 2010, Jordaan, 2012). The difference in vulnerability and coping capacity between commercial farmers and communal small-scale farmers is dramatic. It is therefore not peculiar that communal farmers experience droughts more regularly than commercial farmers. Communal farmers experience normal dry periods with Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) -0,5 to -1,5 as disaster drought while most commercial farmers would experience that as normal dry periods with disaster droughts only from SPI -1,5 (severe 1) and -2 (extreme 2) and below (de Bruin, 2010; Smit, 2010; Jordaan, 2012). De Bruin (2010) and Smit (2010) also reported on the regular requests from communal farmers for government support during dry periods and drought relief.
The drought risk assessment completed in this study highlighted the high risk to drought amongst communal small-scale and subsistence farmers; particularly the high vulnerability and low coping capacity levels. The research question therefore dealt with in this paper is why do they experience such regular droughts? The challenge here is to understand the reasons for increased vulnerability and lack of coping capacity amongst communal farmers and how government should address the problem.
]]>4. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
The main objective of the original research was to develop a methodology for drought risk assessment and to apply the risk assessment methodology to the Northern Cape Province. The methodology integrated drought hazard with social, economic and environmental vulnerability as well as coping capacity and adaptation. This paper only deals with vulnerability and lack of coping capacity amongst communal, subsistence and small-scale farmers and explore the reasons why communal, subsistence small-scale farmers experience more droughts compared to commercial farmers, in spite of similar meteorological conditions.
5. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
A combination of techniques, both qualitative and quantitative was used to obtain primary data. In addition to structured questionnaires the Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA) technique was used to obtain the necessary primary data through inputs from farmers, extension officers and other experts and the basic principles of action research were also applied since the research was part of a project to complete a disaster risk assessment for the NC province.
The main techniques used in this study include the following:
Primary quantitative meteorological data was obtained from archives at the South African Weather Services (SAWS), Agricultural Research Council (ARC), Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Water Research Commission (WRC), National and Provincial Departments of Agriculture and individual farmers. To a large extend the WR90 meteorological data prepared by Schultze and others at the University of KwaZulu Natal were used to analyze drought hazard probability and severity for each of the tertiary catchments in the province.
Quantitative and qualitative farm level data was also obtained through structured questionnaires distributed to individual commercial farmers through the network of Northern Cape Agri. The information obtained from the questionnaires and farmers' association meetings were supplemented with individual farm visits and interviews with farmers and other experts. The level of literacy and lack of historical records amongst communal farmers limited the use of questionnaires and information was obtained from these farmers through group discussions and workshops.
6. FRAMEWORK FOR DROUGHT RISK
]]> Different frameworks and equations for risk exist (Morimiya, 1992; UNDP, 2004; Wisner et al., 2004), but the adjustment of Wisner et al's. (2004) equation proposed by Jordaan (2006) was used in this research.
Where: R = Disaster Risk for disaster
H = Probability and of hazard j with a certain magnitude
CH = Capacity or factors that impact on probability and impact or magnitude of hazard j
= Economic vulnerability
= Environmental vulnerability
= Social vulnerability
]]> = Capacity to deal with economic vulnerability= Capacity to mitigate and limit environmental vulnerability
= Capacity to mitigate and limit social vulnerability
Gbetibouo & Ringler (2009) highlighted the lack of consistency in the methodologies to calculate drought impacts as well as the lack of available data that can be used as vulnerability indicators while Jordaan (2012) also mentioned the identification and weighting of vulnerability indicators as amongst the main challenges in drought risk assessment. Vulnerability in this study was calculated as follows:
where:
= Environmental vulnerability to drought hazard
= Social vulnerability to drought hazard
]]> = Economic vulnerability to drought hazard= Weight of vulnerability indicator i.
and,
weighted factor for = 0.3
weighted factor for = 0.2
weighted factor for = 0.5
Details for the calculation of vulnerability and coping capacity are discussed in Jordaan (2012). This paper only deals with factors influencing the vulnerability and coping capacity of communal and small-scale farmers.
]]> 7. ADAPTATION AND COPING STRATEGIES TO DROUGHT
Nelson, Adger and Brown (2007) define adaptation as a process of deliberate change in anticipation of external changes or stresses. They see adaptation as a core feature of socio-ecological systems that built on the resilience of communities within those systems. Burton, Huq, Lim, Pilifosova, & Schipper, (2002) sees adaptation as the ability of social and environmental systems to adjust to change and shocks in order to cope with the consequences of change and shocks while Stringer, Dyer, Reed, Dougill, Twyman, & Mkwambisi, (2009) agrees with the widespread understanding of the role of adaptation as a process of deliberate change to build resilience and overcome the negative impacts of shocks and change Sewell, Kates and Philips (1968) call it adjustments and consider it a strategy that requires more time than coping. The longer-term strategy is adaptation, and this involves significant changes in lifestyles, livelihoods and farming practices (Sewell et al., 1968; Myburg, 1994; Vogel, 1995; O'Farrel et al, 2009).
Adaptation takes place at the macro, meso and micro level with the macro level adaptation in the domain of policy changes and implementation. Burten, Soussan and Hammil (2003), Smit and Wandell (2006), Stringer et al. (2009) and Lotze-Campen and Schellnhuber (2009) all agree that the conventional thinking of adaptation at micro level is more reactive while policy driven adaptation is better planned and proactive with the focus on risk reduction. Stringer et al. (2009) argue that it is not always the case, and that the complexity of adaptation at different levels should be understood, for example adaptation may reduce immediate risk, yet it can increase risk in the longer term if not appropriately planned and implemented.
The capacity to avoid, cope, adjust or adapt is a significant factor in characterizing vulnerability and very important in the context of drought risk reduction. Adaptive capacity (adaptability) at micro level is similar or closely related to other commonly used concepts such as coping capacity, management capacity, stability, robustness, flexibility, and resilience (Smit & Wandel, 2006). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) describes adaptive capacity as "the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to adjust to the effects or impacts of climate change (including climate variability and extremes). The capacity to adapt is context-specific and varies from country to country, from community to community, among social groups and individuals, and over time" (IPCC 2001; Smit & Wandel, 2006). McCarthy, Canziani, Leary, Dokken & White (2001) consider adaptive capacity as "a function of wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and stability and management capabilities" . Brooks (2003) argues that the adaptive capacity of a system or society reflects its ability to modify its characteristics or behaviour to cope with existing or anticipated external stresses and changes in external conditions.
The link between government, governance and adaptive policies at national (macro) level and the adaptive capacity of farmers at micro level are of critical importance. Farm level adaptive capacity is unlikely to be sufficient in poor regions and under-developed economies without sufficient markets and resources (Lotze-Campen & Schellnhuber, 2009). O'Brien et al. (2004) and Eakin and Lemos (2006) find that globalization and the removal of agricultural subsidies and increased import competition reduce the adaptive capacity of farmers to climate shocks, especially in developing countries. Therefore there is a need for national and international policies that consider and support adaptation in the agricultural sector at local level (Rosenzweig & Tubiello, 2007; Lotze-Campen & Schnellnhuber, 2009). Belliveau, Bradshaw, Smit, Reid, & Sawyer, (2006); and Easterling, & Mendelsohn, (2000) recommend the reform of agricultural policies in developed countries to provide for better options for the poor to increase their adaptive capacity or resilience. They recommend a shift of financial resources away from direct farming income support towards agricultural education, research and technological development in order to assure increased and more efficient outputs under changing market and climate conditions. Lotze-Campen & Schellnhuber (2009) add improved policies that guide land use changes, regulation of migration patterns, and financial and material support for alternative livelihood options to the set of policies that can increase resilience while Easterling et al. (2007) argue for the establishment of accessible markets and financial services as preconditions for adaptation under climatic shocks.
Adger (2009) suggest four meta-domains that limit the adaptation potential of individuals and communities. He challenges the view that exogenous forces outside the control of the individual determine adaptive capacity rather than values, perceptions, processes and power structures within society. Ethics (how and what we value), knowledge (how and what we know), risk (how and what we perceive) and culture (how and why we live) seems to be instrumental in limiting the adaptive capacity of people.
Ethics is a critical factor in the manifestation of adaptive strategies for different groups. What may be interpreted as a successful adaptation strategy by one group might be viewed as a total failure by another group as a result of different priorities and values held within society. Secondly, knowledge about the impacts of drought is also cited as a reason for delayed adaptation strategies. Adger (2009) argues that greater foresight not necessarily facilitates adaptation but that instead, robust decision-making circumvents the need for precise knowledge. Thirdly, perceptions of risk held by society are ultimately key to their adaptation decisions. Risk perception can act as a limiting factor if society does not believe the risk is great enough to justify action. Fourthly, the undervaluing of places and cultures may limit the options for adaptation (Adger 2009). Adger (2009) came to the conclusion that the ability to adapt was determined in part by the availability of technology and the capacity for learning but fundamentally by the ethics of the treatment of vulnerable people and places within societal decision-making structures; an important observation when designing adaptation strategies with communal subsistence farmers and commercial farmers with different world-views.
Burton and Lim (2005) and Rosenzweig & Tubiello (2007) mention that adaptation in agriculture is the norm rather than the exception, and that farmers in the past demonstrated sufficient adaptive capacity to cope with extreme weather events on short-, medium- and long-term time scales. Important, however, to note is that the adaptive capacity of farmers are determined by (i) education or human capital, (ii) wealth, (iii) material resources, (iv) societal entitlements, (v) information, (vi) technology, (vii) infrastructure and (viii) resources (Belliveau, 2006; Easterling et al., 2007; Adgar et al, 2009).
For centuries drought became one of the main challenges for livestock farmers in Africa (Le Houerou, 1996). Livestock farmers responded differently through time. With land available in abundance, farmers used avoidance strategies by adopting a nomadic system where they moved from drought-stricken areas to areas with good supply of feed and fodder. Increased pressure on land forced farmers to respond in different ways. Coping with drought is considered a short-term response to feed and fodder shortages (Vogel, 1995; O'Farrel, Anderson, Milton & Dean, et al., 2009). Eriksen, Brown & Kelly (2005) describe coping mechanisms as the actions and activities that take place within existing structures and systems; examples are when farmers introduce on-farm diversification such as diversification of feed and fodder sources or alternative livestock types.
O'Farrel et al. (2009) argue that how farmers respond to drought is a function of several variables related to the severity, frequency and duration of droughts. In addition, farming practices and the farming system determine the type of response mechanisms, for example nomadic and transhumant pastoralists can apply evading strategies while ranchers and crop farmers have to adopt an endurance strategy (Le Houerou, 1996; O'Farrel et al., 2009).
]]> Adjustment strategies differ from coping mechanisms in the sense that they are more permanent, and adjustments need to be initiated prior to droughts (Sewell et al., 1968). In a sense, adjustment can be viewed also as adaptation but the literature proposes adaptation as a permanent and long-term strategy that affected livelihoods and lifestyles (Sewell et al., 1968; Myburg, 1994; Vogel, 1995; O'Farrel et al, 2009). Adjustment strategies include strategies such as the change of (i) livestock type, (ii) change in grazing strategies, (iii) farm level diversification, (iv) economic diversification, (v) insurance, (vi) building of fodder banks, (vii) permanent reduction of grazing capacity, (viii) water reticulation, (ix) planting of drought resistant crops, and (x) budgeting and financial planning for droughts (Scoones, 1992; Myburgh, 1994; Vogel, 1995; Le Houerou, 1996; Hudson, 2002).The change of livestock type, for example is one of the most popular strategies applied by commercial farmers in South Africa; For example; merino and dorper sheep in the Karoo and mutton merino in the Eastern Cape and eastern Free State, whereas communal farmers mainly farm with cattle due to the cultural significance of cattle.
8. RESULTS
The communal farmers in the province are in a near permanent state of "drought" due to factors typical of communal farming in all parts of the country and even in the world (Hoffman et al., 1999; Brushweller & Gabathuler, 2006; Dercon, 2007; Sahling, 2011; Smit, 2010; Jordaan, Sakulski & Jordaan, 2011). Communal farmers experience normal dry periods as droughts, and require external support during each dry period. The Department of Agriculture and district municipalities reported that they received requests for drought relief from communal farmers nearly every second year. The results of the research expose the vulnerability to drought and the lack of adaptation and coping capacity amongst the communal farmers in the Northern Cape.
8.1 Drought as a Hazard
Based on available historical meteorological data from 1920 for the Northern Cape no evidence of climate change or more droughts could be detected for the province. Analyses of the mean trend in precipitation for all tertiary catchments shows actually an increase in mean annual precipitation of 0,51mm with standard deviation 0.49 and coefficient of variance 0.96. All catchments show a positive trend with mean p-value 0.45 (Standard deviation 0,31 and coefficient of variance 0,69). The trend though, is statistically not significant due to large variations reflected in the p-values. Also interesting to note is the mean exceedence probability in the NC for severe droughts (PI<-1,5) is 0,11 and exceedence probability for extreme droughts (SPI<-2) is 0,05 (Jordaan, Sakulski & Jordaan, 2011). In conclusion; severe droughts (SPI<-1.5) are experienced 1 in eleven years while communal farmers experience these at least 4 in eleven years (de Bruin, 2010; Smit, 2010; Sahling, 2010)). Fact is that farmers cannot blame less rain for the perception of more droughts and this paper specifically focuses on the non-meteorological reasons for droughts amongst communal small-scale farmers in the NC province.
8.2 Adaptation, coping and vulnerability
Communal farmers are concentrated in large areas such as JTG District Municipality, Kgalagadi north of Askham, Richtersveld, Steinkopf, Pella, Leliefontein and other State land as well as on municipal land surrounding most towns. Areas of communal and State land in the NC are illustrated with the dark patches shown in Fig 2 below.
]]>
Communal farmers in the NC share the same world-wide problems which originate from limited access to land. It is a well-known fact that communal land in South Africa and most of the developing world is over-stocked and over-grazed because of competition amongst stock-owners for land. At the core the challenges of communal farming is the lack of well-defined property right systems, lack of proper land management principles, over-stocking and overgrazing and poor infrastructure. (Chenimbiri, 1999; Fafchamps, 1999; Baker & Hoffman, 2006; Dercon, 2007; O'Farrel et al., 2009; Jordaan, Sakulski & Jordaan, 2011; Jordaan, 2012). These factors were all clearly evidenced on communal land in the NC province.
Without exception, all communal farmer groups interviewed during the research mentioned the lack of land ownership as one of the main problems of over-stocking and wrong agricultural practices. The Richtersveld farmers for example mention it as the root cause of all their problems. The fact is that too many people depend on available land for livelihoods and the attitude of farmers are that they must use what is available, since if they do not utilize the land, somebody else will. This argument concurs with what Tietenberg (2003) wrote about ill-defined property right systems.
The challenges that increase drought risk for communal farmers are similar in all the communal farming communities visited. These are as follows:
Some general constraints that increase vulnerability mentioned by communal farmers, extension officers and livestock health officials are the following:
Considering all the above, it is clear that the coping capacity of communal farmers are much lower than those of the well-established commercial farmer. That increases the vulnerability of these farmers to drought and ultimately their drought risk. Drought risk in communal areas is therefore higher not only because of over-grazing; they are also extremely vulnerable with low capacity, and that ultimately increases their risk profile to drought.
9. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
]]> The research shows that climate change is not to be blamed for the perception of an increase in droughts in the NC as mentioned by Van Niekerk, Tempelhoff, Faling, Thompson, Jordaan, Coetsee, & Maartens, (2009). Other factors seem to be at the root of droughts in the NC, notably the lack of adaptation, low levels of coping capacity and high vulnerability, especially amongst communal farmers. The main recommendation derived from this study is that policies dealing with drought risk reduction should focus on adaptation to current climatic conditions, building of coping capacity for extreme shocks and decreased vulnerability amongst communal farmers, rather than climate change issues so popularly promoted nowadays.Some of the specific issues to be addressed are the following:
Finally, government should be sensitized about (i) the importance of well-defined property right systems coupled with proper land and resource planning, and (ii) management of available land while (iii) building resilience through education and training by the extension services. (iv) Markets and (v) access to credit is equally important and (vi) climate change is not to blame for current drought challenges in the NC.
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1 According to classification by Hayes, 1999
2 According to classification by Hayes, 1999
3 A new description for small auctions with only one buyer in communal areas. The author heard the description for the first time amongst farmers at Loopeng.
4 In most cases only one buyer