<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0038-2353</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[South African Journal of Science]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[S. Afr. j. sci.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0038-2353</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Academy of Science of South Africa]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0038-23532012000300015</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Remote sensing land-cover change in Port Elizabeth during South Africa's democratic transition]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Odindi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[John]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A01"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mhangara]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Paidamwoyo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A02"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Kakembo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Vincent]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A03"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="A01">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of KwaZulu-Natal School of Environmental Science ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pietermaritzburg ]]></addr-line>
<country>South Africa</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A02">
<institution><![CDATA[,South African National Space Agency Space Operations ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Pretoria ]]></addr-line>
<country>South Africa</country>
</aff>
<aff id="A03">
<institution><![CDATA[,Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University Department of Geosciences ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Port Elizabeth ]]></addr-line>
<country>South Africa</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>108</volume>
<numero>5-6</numero>
<fpage>60</fpage>
<lpage>66</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0038-23532012000300015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso&amp;tlng=en"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0038-23532012000300015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso&amp;tlng=en"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0038-23532012000300015&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso&amp;tlng=en"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Urban population increase has caused significant urban landscape transformation globally. Before 1994, South Africa's highly regulated urban growth was shaped by the restrictive Prevention of Illegal Squatters Act of 1951. After the abolishment of the act in the 1980s, the period of transition to democracy in the 1990s was characterised by an unprecedented urban population influx that caused a myriad of socio-economic and environmental challenges. These challenges have consequently compounded the need to monitor urban growth for the planning and optimisation of urban spaces. The limitations of traditional mapping methods, such as surveying and photogrammetry, in urban mapping are well documented. In the recent past, satellite remote sensing has emerged as one of the most viable urban mapping tools. Using post-classification comparisons, we sought to monitor major land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the city of Port Elizabeth during South Africa's democratic transition (1990-2000). Images for 1990, 1995 and 2000 were acquired, geo-rectified and atmospherically corrected. An iterative self-organising data analysis (ISODATA) was then used to generate existing LULCs. Classes generated using ISODATA were then amalgamated to the city's major LULCs and resultant classes were validated using aerial photographs and field visits. Results showed that 'Built-up' and 'Bare surface' LULC classes had the highest increase and decrease, respectively. There was no change in the 'Beach or dune' LULC, whereas 'Green vegetation' and 'Water' classes had minimal changes. This study illustrates the efficacy of remote sensing in monitoring urban change and the potential of remote sensing to aid decision-making in rapidly changing urban landscapes.]]></p></abstract>
</article-meta>
</front><body><![CDATA[ <p align="right"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><b>RESEARCH    ARTICLES</b></font></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="4"><b><a name="top"></a>Remote    sensing land-cover change in Port Elizabeth during South Africa's democratic    transition</b></font></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><b>John Odindi<sup>I</sup>;    Paidamwoyo Mhangara<sup>II</sup>; Vincent Kakembo<sup>III</sup></b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><sup>I</sup>School    of Environmental Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South    Africa    <br>   <sup>II</sup>Space Operations, South African National Space Agency, Pretoria,    South Africa    <br>   <sup>III</sup>Department of Geosciences, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University,    Port Elizabeth, South Africa</font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><a href="#back">Correspondence    to</a></font></p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p> <hr noshade size="1">     <p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><b>ABSTRACT</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Urban population    increase has caused significant urban landscape transformation globally. Before    1994, South Africa's highly regulated urban growth was shaped by the restrictive    Prevention of Illegal Squatters Act of 1951. After the abolishment of the act    in the 1980s, the period of transition to democracy in the 1990s was characterised    by an unprecedented urban population influx that caused a myriad of socio-economic    and environmental challenges. These challenges have consequently compounded    the need to monitor urban growth for the planning and optimisation of urban    spaces. The limitations of traditional mapping methods, such as surveying and    photogrammetry, in urban mapping are well documented. In the recent past, satellite    remote sensing has emerged as one of the most viable urban mapping tools. Using    post-classification comparisons, we sought to monitor major land use and land    cover (LULC) changes in the city of Port Elizabeth during South Africa's democratic    transition (1990-2000). Images for 1990, 1995 and 2000 were acquired, geo-rectified    and atmospherically corrected. An iterative self-organising data analysis (ISODATA)    was then used to generate existing LULCs. Classes generated using ISODATA were    then amalgamated to the city's major LULCs and resultant classes were validated    using aerial photographs and field visits. Results showed that 'Built-up' and    'Bare surface' LULC classes had the highest increase and decrease, respectively.    There was no change in the 'Beach or dune' LULC, whereas 'Green vegetation'    and 'Water' classes had minimal changes. This study illustrates the efficacy    of remote sensing in monitoring urban change and the potential of remote sensing    to aid decision-making in rapidly changing urban landscapes.</font></p> <hr noshade size="1">     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="3"><b>Introduction</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Globally, there    have recently been unprecedented increases in the concentration of the population    in cities, which have led to rapid urban landscape transformations. These transformations    are often characterised by diverse biophysical and socio-economic processes    related to the conversion of nonurban to urban lands and the resultant landscape    heterogeneity.<sup>1,2,3</sup> Recent studies have shown that over 50% of the    global human population resides in urban areas.<sup>4,5</sup> According to Montgomery    and Hewett<sup>6</sup>, the highest rates of urbanisation and its related spatial    landscape changes are expected in developing countries. In sub-Saharan Africa    for instance, urban population grew from 15% in the 1950s to 32% in the 1990s.    By 2030 it is projected that 54% - 60% of the sub-Saharan population will live    in urban areas.<sup>5</sup></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">South Africa's    urbanisation and urban landscape changes are markedly different from other countries    on the African continent.<sup>7,8</sup> Over time, most sub-Saharan urban areas    have experienced a 'natural' expansion, with landscape shape and form often    determined by physical infrastructure, topography and geological factors.<sup>9</sup>    In Nairobi, and indeed in many other sub-Saharan cities, major urban land uses    have followed a radial pattern around roads from the city centre and within    flatter surfaces suitable for construction.<sup>8</sup> Whereas these factors    may have been critical to South Africa's urban development, her urban spatial    growth and patterns have been mainly determined by a series of movement restrictions    and the pre-1994 laws that date back to 1913.<sup>10,11</sup> A notable example    is the Prevention of Illegal Squatters Act of 1951 which highly regulated settlement    in South Africa's urban areas.<sup>12,13</sup> Between 1960 and 1983, about    860 000 people were moved from urban areas under the Group Areas Act.<sup>14</sup>    Consequently, such laws significantly limited 'natural' urban growth through    'influx control'.<sup>13,15</sup> The beginning of unrestricted rural-urban    movement in 1986 and the formal end of the Group Areas Act in 1991 saw a dramatic    increase in urban population numbers.<sup>15,16</sup> From 1991 to 1996, the    population of Black South Africans in urban areas increased by about 27%<sup>15</sup>    and South Africa's urban population grew by 4.3% to 56% between 1996 and 2001.<sup>17</sup></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Like other South    African cities, the unprecedented growth and transformation of the city of Port    Elizabeth during South Africa's democratic transition led to enormous spatial    planning challenges that affected social service delivery, infrastructural development    and environmental degradation that led to a general decline in quality of life.<sup>9,18,19</sup>    Port Elizabeth's sudden growth and the consequent landscape changes during this    period compounded the need to monitor spatio-temporal land use and land cover    (LULC) patterns.<sup>18</sup></font></p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Generating up-to-date    LULC change in dynamic urban landscapes using ground mapping techniques is often    time consuming, expensive and tedious.<sup>20,21</sup> Other techniques, like    conventional aerial photography, have a long history in urban studies but have    various shortcomings, including a high cost per unit area and, until recently,    the data were seldom available in digital formats.<sup>22,23,24</sup> Repetitive    coverage, consistency in image quality, cost effectiveness and the development    of change detection algorithms, amongst others, have made remote sensing a viable    option in urban LULC change mapping.<sup>21,24,25,26</sup> Such benefits are    essential for understanding past, present and future drivers and patterns of    urban landscape changes.<sup>9,27</sup></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Although a number    of researchers have studied urban LULC change (Mundia and Aniya<sup>9</sup>,    Abbot and Doughlas<sup>28</sup>, Deng et al.<sup>29</sup>, Dewan and Yamaguchi<sup>30</sup>,    Kesgin and Nurlu<sup>31</sup> and others), Hope<sup>32</sup> has argued that    relevant urban strategies and remedies require cognisance of local socio-economic    and cultural characteristics, as well as a site's uniqueness. Like other major    urban areas in South Africa, the city of Port Elizabeth and its greater metropolitan    area has undergone a series of transformations. These transformations include    restricted, and hence regulated, urban growth before the democratic transition,    urban influx during the democratic transition and post-transition policy-driven    urban physical development transformations. In contrast to 'naturally growing'    urban areas studied by the aforementioned authors, these factors have combined    to make the city of Port Elizabeth a globally characteristically unique setting    for studying LULC change. Consequently, the purpose of this study was to analyse    major LULC changes in the city of Port Elizabeth during South Africa's democratic    transition (1990-2000).</font></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="3"><b>The study area</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The city of Port    Elizabeth was established in 1820. It is located at 33&deg;57'29"S and 25&deg;36'00"E    on the south-eastern seaboard of South Africa (<a href="#f1">Figure 1</a>).    Port Elizabeth is the second oldest city in South Africa and has since been    incorporated into the greater Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan area that includes    the towns of Dispatch and Uitenhage. With an area of approximately 335 km<sup>2</sup>    and a population of approximately 1 million (Statistics South Africa 2007 Community    Survey<sup>33</sup>), it is the fifth largest city in South Africa. Population    density varies across the city; higher-income low-density suburbs and farms    at the city's periphery have 10-30 people/km<sup>2</sup>, while the inner city,    high-rise suburbs, low-income areas and informal settlements have over 3000    people/km<sup>2</sup>. Major land uses within the city are 'residential', 'industrial'    and 'retail', whereas 'small-scale to medium-scale animal and crop farming'    predominates at the city's periphery. The city is a major industrial hub and    is home to one of the major seaports in South Africa. The post-1994 era and    the growing industrial, retail and tourism sectors have been the major causes    of unprecedented growth of the city.</font></p>     <p><a name="f1"></a></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p align="center"><img src="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15f01.jpg"></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="3"><b>Materials and    methods</b></font></p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><b>Land-use and    land-cover change detection</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Change detection    is premised on multidate spatial representation resulting from environmental    conditions and human activities on multiple imagery dates.<sup>26,34</sup> It    is possible to detect surface cover changes as a result of distinguishable reflectance    values of LULC, which are often distinguishable from changes caused by soil    moisture, solar illumination and atmospheric conditions, amongst others, at    the time of image acquisition.<sup>25,35,36</sup> According to Chen<sup>37</sup>,    several change detection techniques, including multidate composite image change    detection,<sup>38</sup> image change algebra,<sup>35</sup> image regression,<sup>39</sup>    on-screen digitising,<sup>40</sup> post-classification comparisons<sup>41</sup>    and fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic<sup>42</sup> have been developed (see Mas<sup>25</sup>    and Lu<sup>35</sup> for a detailed review of existing change detection techniques).    Because the quality of change detection is often determined by thematic, spectral    and spatio-temporal limitations, appropriate selection from an array of existing    techniques is of paramount importance.<sup>36</sup> In keeping with the increasing    popularity of the post-classification approach,<sup>26,43,44,45</sup> for this    study we adopted a multitemporal comparison of delineated classes. In this approach,    each of the image spectral classifications are performed independently and the    resultant areas within the thematic maps are compared.<sup>26,29,44</sup> The    main advantages of this method are the detailed information that can be gained    from the change matrix produced and the limited multitemporal imagery impact    arising from calibration, atmospheric and environmental differences.<sup>29,35</sup>    However, the original land covers often need to be reclassified or reweighted,    and the quality of the resultant classes is dependent on the choice of training    data.<sup>29,35</sup></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">According to Deng<sup>29</sup>,    sensor, radiometric and spatial resolution commonalities are critical factors    in multitemporal change detection. To eliminate multitemporal imagery inconsistencies    arising from multiple seasons, the sun's inclination and phenological differences,    it is paramount that the images used represent similar seasons or conditions.<sup>29,46,47,48</sup>    To facilitate comparability and to determine multitemporal changes in major    land-cover types in Port Elizabeth, similar dimensional extents around the city    were extracted from three sets of Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data (<a href="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15t01.jpg">Table    1</a>).</font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Precise registration    of multitemporal image data sets is of critical importance to a change detection    process.<sup>49,50</sup> To eliminate change detection errors arising from image    misregistration, it is generally recommended that the accuracy of images registered    be less than a pixel,<sup>25</sup> although, less than half a pixel is regarded    as ideal.<sup>29,51</sup> In this study, the chosen images and respective aerial    photos were rectified to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection and World    Geodetic System 1984 datum. Fifty invariable points of features common to the    1:50 000 topographic maps and the images were selected for geo-registration.    Additional evenly distributed GPS readings of ground control points common to    the 1990 image and aerial photos were also collected and used for geo-rectification.    With 1990 as a base image, the other images (<a href="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15f02.jpg">Figure    2</a>) were coregistered and resampled using nearest-neighbour interpolation.    An accuracy of less than half a pixel was achieved in the three images.</font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Change detection    processes require spatial resolution, phenology and radiometric characteristics    to be comparable. In this study, these conditions were met as images were acquired    at similar seasonal (winter) conditions (<a href="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15t01.jpg">Table 1</a>).    However, other factors like sensor degradation, variations in solar illumination    and effects of atmospheric scattering and absorption affect the quality of change    detection outcomes.<sup>25,52,53</sup> To correct for these possible anomalies,    relative dark and light pseudo-invariant features were identified and the imagery    was normalised using the process described by Paolini et al.<sup>47</sup>, Jensen<sup>52</sup>    and Hartvich et al.<sup>54</sup> Georectified aerial photographs were imported    into the IDRISI Kilimanjaro raster-based software<sup>55</sup> and used to validate    the resultant land-cover classes.</font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><b>Land-use and    land-cover classes</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">A hybrid classification    technique comprising unsupervised and supervised classifications was used to    classify the 1990, 1995 and 2000 images. Two algorithms - iterative self-organising    data analysis technique (ISODATA) and K-means - were used for unsupervised classification.<sup>43</sup>    Jensen<sup>43</sup> recommends the use of ISODATA as it involves further refinements    for splitting and merging classes. Consequently, ISODATA was applied to the    three image data sets. This process was performed for two reasons: firstly,    to obtain a summary of the number of spectral differences in the image data    sets and, secondly, to use this information as a basis for an amalgamated number    of related LULCs through supervised classification. The ISODATA technique yielded    21 classes. The aerial photo mosaic corresponding to the imagery dates, a field    survey and GPS readings of features considered invariant like roads, buildings    and public spaces were used to distinguish and label the unsupervised classes    and to identify training areas for a supervised classification. At least 120    pixels for each class were used to uniquely label new spectral signatures. Using    the created signatures, the maximum likelihood algorithm was used to amalgamate    LULC classes that were considered related. Consequently, the LULC classes were    reduced from 21 using unsupervised classification to 5 using supervised classification:    (1) beach or dune, (2) built-up area, (3) green vegetation, (4) bare surface    and (5) water (<a href="#t2">Table 2</a>).</font></p>     <p><a name="t2"></a></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p align="center"><img src="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15t02.jpg"></p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">From the three    classified images, pixel-by-pixel comparisons were used to determine multidate    LULC transitions followed by 'from-to' LULC comparisons to calculate the pixel    number differences between the 1990 and 1995 images and between the 1995 and    2000 images. The areas of LULC surfaces were calculated by multiplying the imagery    pixel spatial resolution (30 m x 30 m) and converting the surface areas of cover    types into hectares.</font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Accuracy assessment    is a critical process in LULC mapping. The error matrix technique is the most    commonly used method of assessing the accuracy of LULC maps.<sup>35,47</sup>    According to Congalton and Plourde<sup>56</sup>, an error matrix is based on    a set of ground truth data, a classification scheme, a sampling scheme, a spatial    autocorrelation and sample size and units. With the aid of the aerial photo    mosaic (1:25 000), invariant feature points and topographic sheets, the accuracy    of the images was assessed using the error matrix technique described by Congalton    and Plourde<sup>56</sup>. As recommended by Congalton<sup>57</sup> and Jensen<sup>43</sup>,    ground truth data for accuracy evaluation were identified through stratified    random sampling. In total, 600 polygons were used to assess the classification    accuracy of each of the temporal classifications (<a href="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/html/15t03.htm">Table    3</a>).</font></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="3"><b>Results and    discussion</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The five amalgamated    LULC classes were spectrally different. This difference allowed for spectral    separation of the different</font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">LULC types using    per-pixel delineation by the IDRISI remote-sensing software. The surface covered    by 'beach or dune' had the lowest pixel count, area and percentage change during    the study period (<a href="#t4">Table 4</a>). Although the utmost care was taken    during the classifications training process, there was some spectral confusion    for the 'beach or dune' class. 'Bare rocky shoreline' for instance was confused    for 'built-up area' and 'white shoreline waves' was confused for 'beach or dune'    (<a href="#f3">Figures 3</a> and <a href="#f4">4</a>). The misclassification    of 'rocky shoreline' as 'built-up area' was present in all three images analysed,    whereas the misclassification of 'white shoreline waves' as 'beach or dune'    occurred only for the 1995 and 2000 image data sets (<a href="#f3">Figures 3</a>    and <a href="#f4">4</a>). The 'beach or dune' LULC class was not expected to    change significantly over the study period. However, the inconsistent pixel    percentage coverage of 2.3, 2.4 and 2.3 in 1990, 1995 and 2000, respectively,    for the 'beach or dune' LULC class can be attributed to the presence of waves    during image acquisition and the consequent spectral confusion for the 'beach    or dune' cover class (<a href="#f3">Figure 3</a>). The occurrence of spectral    confusion is not unique to this study; according to Deng et al.<sup>29</sup>    and Lo and Choi<sup>58</sup>, a complex mosaic of urban land-cover types and    the consequent mixed pixel problem is often a challenge in urban LULC classification.</font></p>     <p><a name="t4"></a></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p align="center"><img src="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15t04.jpg"></p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><a name="f3"></a></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p align="center"><img src="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15f03.jpg"></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><a name="f4"></a></p>     <p align="center"><img src="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15f04.jpg"></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">There were noticeable    changes in the 'built-up area', 'green vegetation' and 'bare surface' LULC classes    in Port Elizabeth during the 10-year period (<a href="#f3">Figure 3</a>). The    'built-up area' LULC class showed a general increase during the study period    with a percentage change of 4.4% from 1990 to 1995 and 8.9% from 1995 to 2000    (<a href="#t4">Table 4</a>). This increase constituted the greatest change of    all the LULC types (<a href="#t4">Table 4</a>). In contrast to the other LULC    types with significant changes, the 'green vegetation' class showed a higher    decline in area in the 1990-1995 period than in the 1995-2000 period (<a href="#t4">Table    4</a>). The 'bare surface' land-cover class declined by a cumulative 10% in    the 10-year period, with 7.4% of the decline occurring in the 1995-2000 period.    This rapid loss in the 'bare surface' land-cover class can be attributed to    two factors: firstly, vegetation in close proximity to urban informal settlements    is used as fuelwood and, secondly, vegetation clearance is a requisite for construction    and settlement.</font></p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The spatial increase    in 'built-up area' at the expense of other land-cover types reflected in this    study is consistent with urban demographic changes recorded in the literature.    According to Kok and Collinson<sup>17</sup>, South Africa's urban population    grew by 4.3% to 56% between 1996 and 2001. Naude and Krugell<sup>59</sup> noted    that in the recent past, South Africa has recorded one of the highest rates    of urban growth with an expected further increase of up to 70% by 2030. This    trend is directly attributed to urban influx during and after the democratic    transition and the concentration of labour and income opportunities in urban    areas.<sup>7</sup> Other reasons that spurred urbanisation and the consequent    urban landscape transformation during the study period were the significant    decline in rural agro-based employment in the 1990s,<sup>60</sup> tolerance    to increasing urban informal settlement and a government-led policy for informal    settlement upgrade through the Reconstruction and Development Programme.<sup>12,28</sup>    Whereas there was a general increase in rural-urban movement depicted in the    2001 South African national population census, the largest proportion of the    increase in movement was from secondary urban areas to major cities and peripheral    towns.<sup>16,18</sup></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Changes in area    covered by the 'water' land-cover class seem to have been influenced by the    effects of weather on the sea (shown by white shoreline wave foams at the time    of image acquisition) and the activities at the salt pans in the middle of the    city (<a href="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/15f02.jpg">Figures 2</a> and <a href="#f3">3</a>). In    the 1995 image classification, for instance, there was a significant spectral    confusion between the 'white shoreline waves' on the southern coastline and    the 'beach or dune' LULC class (<a href="#f3">Figure 3</a>). The empty and water-filled    salt pans are clearly visible in <a href="#f3">Figure 3a</a> and <a href="#f3">3b</a>.</font></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="3"><b>Conclusion</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">A rapid increase    in urban settlement between 1990 and 2000 was the key driver of LULC change    in Port Elizabeth. Like many other urban areas in South Africa, the dynamic    urban landscape is directly attributed to pre-1994 laws and the new government's    policies on the provision of social and physical infrastructure. Using remote    sensing, this study has shown that built-up areas in the Nelson Mandela Bay    Metropolitan increased by 13788.4 ha (representing a change of 13.3%). The gain    in the 'built-up area' class was mainly attributed to a decline in the amalgamated    classes, that is, open farms, dry vegetation, very sparse vegetation and bare    areas that declined by 10375 ha (representing a 10% decrease) and the 'green    vegetation' class that declined by 3.2%. The changes in the 'built-up area'    and 'bare surface' LULC classes were more significant during the 1995 to 2000    period, whilst the change in the area covered by 'green vegetation' was more    significant during the 1990 to 1995 period.</font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">This study has    shown that remote-sensing techniques offer a viable option for creating land-use    inventory and monitoring systems in fast growing urban settings. These systems    can be used to make optimal urban land use decisions. Whereas census-based literature    has reported a general increase in South Africa's urban population during this    period, this study has attempted to fill the gap in the literature on physical    urban spatial trends.</font></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="3"><b>Acknowledgements</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><b>Competing interests</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">We declare that    we have no financial or personal relationships which may have inappropriately    influenced us in writing this article.</font></p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><b>Authors' contributions</b></font></p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">J.O. was the lead    researcher, performed most of the experiments and wrote the manuscript. P.M.    performed the experiments and wrote the manuscript. V.K. gave technical input    into the field research and the writing of the manuscript.</font></p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="3"><b>References</b></font></p>     <!-- ref --><p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">1.&nbsp;Ridd MK,    Liu JA. Comparison of four algorithms for change detection in an urban environment.    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Cape Town: Oxford University    Press, 1992; p. 229-245.</font>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;[&#160;<a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="javascript: window.open('/scielo.php?script=sci_nlinks&ref=787751&pid=S0038-2353201200030001500060&lng=','','width=640,height=500,resizable=yes,scrollbars=1,menubar=yes,');">Links</a>&#160;]<!-- end-ref --><p>&nbsp;</p>     <p>&nbsp;</p>     <p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><b><a name="back"></a><a href="#top"><img src="/img/revistas/sajs/v108n5-6/seta.jpg" border="0"></a>    Correspondence to:    <br>   </b> John Odindi    <br>   Postal address: Private Bag X01, Scottsville 3209, South Africa    <br>   Email: <a href="mailto:Odindi@ukzn.ac.za">Odindi@ukzn.ac.za</a></font></p>     ]]></body>
<body><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Received: 11 Aug.    2011    <br>   Accepted: 20 Dec. 2011    <br>   Published: 10 May 2012</font></p>      ]]></body>
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