JOURNAL PAPER

 

Strategic mine planning-communicating uncertainty with scenarios

 

 

G.L. Smith; S.N. Surujhlal; K.T. Manyuchi

Anglo Platinum Limited

 

 

---

SYNOPSIS

This paper introduces and defines the concept of a linkage between long-term planning parameters ('global assumptions') and possible future world views as conceived in scenario planning. Scenario planning, the tool that is used to arrive at plausible future world views, is described in the context of the platinum industry. The interpretation of the scenarios into long-term planning parameters is made, followed by an illustration of how the long-term planning process has been adapted at Anglo Platinum to include the notion of uncertainty.

---

 

 

“Full text available only in PDF format”

 

 

References

BRADFIELD, R., WRIGHT, G., BURT, G., CAIRNS, G., and VAN DER HEIJDEN, K. The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures 37. www.elsevier.com/locate/futures. 2005. pp. 795-812.         [ Links ]

BROWN, S. Scenarios in systems analysis. E.S. Quade, W.I. Boucher (eds.), Systems analysis and policy planning: applications in defence, American Elsevier Publishing Co., New York, 1968.         [ Links ]

CHERMACK, T.J. Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures 36. www.elsevier.com/locate/futures. 2004. pp. 295-309.         [ Links ]

CUNHAA, M.P., PALMAB P., and DA COSTA, N.G. Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight. Futures 38. www.elsevier.com/locate/futures. 2006. pp. 942-955.         [ Links ]

DORTMANS, P.J. and EIFFE, E. An examination of future scenarios using historical analogy. Futures 36. www.elsevier.com/locate/futures 2004. pp. 1049-1062.         [ Links ]

KAHANE, A. The Mont Fleur Scenarios, GBN, Deeper News 7, vol. 1, 1991.         [ Links ]

KORTEA, R.F. and CHERMACK, T.J. Changing organizational culture with scenario planning. Futures 39, 2007. www.elsevier.com/locate/futures. 2007. pp. 645-656.         [ Links ]

PORTER, M.E. Competitive Advantage-Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance, Free Press, New York, 1985.         [ Links ]

POSTMA, T.J.B.M. and LIEBL, F. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72 2005.         [ Links ]

RAYNOR, M.E. What is Corporate Strategy, Really? Ivey Business Journal, www.iveybusinessjournal.com. 2007.         [ Links ]

SCHWARTZ, P. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Currency, New York, 1996.         [ Links ]

SCHOEMAKER, P.J.H. Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinkers, Sloan Management Review, Winter. 1995. pp. 25-40.         [ Links ]

SELIN, C. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios. Futures 38. www.elsevier.com/locate/futures. 2006. pp. 1-14.         [ Links ]

SMITH, G.L. and BALLINGTON, I.R. The application of discounted cash flow modelling in strategic mine planning. Proceedings of the First International Seminar on Strategic versus Tactical Approaches in Mining, South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Symposium Series S40, Johannesburg, South Africa, September 2005.         [ Links ]

SMITH, G.L., ANDERSEN, D.C., PEARSON-TAYLOR, J., and MARSH A.M. Project valuation, capital investment and strategic alignment-tools and techniques at Anglo Platinum. Second International Platinum Conference, SAIMM Symposium Series S45, 2006.         [ Links ]

SMITH G.L., PEARSON-TAYLOR, J., and ANDERSEN, D.C. The Evolution of Strategic Long-Term Planning at Anglo Platinum. Second International Platinum Conference, SAIMM Symposium Series S45, 2006        [ Links ]

TAYLOR, M.L. and LEGGIO, K. Strategic Decision-Making Contributions from ERM, ROA, KUU, DTA SM, SWOTS, SP and CP: Presentation to the Midwest Finance Association, St Louis, 2003.         [ Links ]

TAYLOR, M.L., LEGGIO, K., VAN HORN, L., and BODDE, D.L. Executive Decision Making under KUU Conditions: Lessons from Scenario Planning, Enterprise Risk Management, Real Options Analysis, Scenario Building and Scenario Analysis. 2003.         [ Links ]

VAN DER HEIJDEN, K., BRADFIELD, R., BURT, G., CAIRNS, G., and WRIGHT, G. The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 2002.         [ Links ]

VAN DER HEIJDEN, K. Can internally generated futures accelerate organizational learning? Futures 36. www.elsevier.com/locate/futures. pp. 145-159.         [ Links ]

VAN DER HEIJDEN, K. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester, 1996.         [ Links ]