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South African Journal of Industrial Engineering

versão On-line ISSN 2224-7890
versão impressa ISSN 1012-277X

S. Afr. J. Ind. Eng. vol.22 no.1 Pretoria  2011


Analysing volatility in equity indices - A Markov approach for Botswana domestic company indices



K.S. Madhava Rao; K.K. Moseki

Department of Statistics, University of Botswana, Gaborone.,




In financial economics, forecasting volatility in stock indices and currency returns has received considerable attention in the last two decades. Many traditional econometric methods forecast asset returns by a point prediction of volatility. The central contribution of this paper is to suggest an alternative approach for modelling and related analysis of asset returns. In this approach, the volatility in stock returns is defined in terms of categories depending on the mean of stock returns and its standard error. This classification naturally allows the study of volatility in terms of a Markov model. The approach suggested here will be of interest to academics, stock market investors, and analysts.


Op die terrein van die finansiële ekonomie het die vooruitskatting van volatiliteit in die aandeelindekse en wisselkoerse baie aandag getrek oor die afgelope twee dekades. Verskeie tradisionele ekonometriese vooruitskattingsmodelle baseer die vooruitskatting van opbrengste op 'n puntvooruitskatting van die wisselvalligheid. Die bydrae van hierdie artikel is om 'n alternatiewe metode voor te stel vir die modellering. Volgens die model word die volatiliteit van opbrengste gekategoriseer op grond van die gemiddelde opbrengste en die standaardfout. Dit skep geleetheid vir die toepassing van 'n Markov-model. Die model sal akademici, beleggers en analiste interesseer.



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