On-line version ISSN 2413-3051
J. energy South. Afr. vol.23 n.4 Cape Town 2012
Johannes W Riekert; Steven F Koch
Department of Economics, University of Pretoria
We examine an important subset of the expected health costs associated with the commissioning of Kusile, a new coal-fired electricity generation plant in South Africa. The subset of health impacts focuses on sulphur dioxides, nitrous oxides and large particulate matter (greater than 10 mm). The analysis makes use of the Impact Pathway Approach combined with the data transfer methodology. The plant, which is expected to contribute 4 800 MW of additional electricity to the South African grid is found to have modest health impacts, partly due to the limited additional pollutant emissions expected at the plant. Specifically, additional localised external health costs are found to be in the region of 0.09c/kWh to 6.08c/kWh. Limitations of the analysis are also examined.
Keywords: Impact Pathway Approach, health cost externalities, Kusile
Full text available only in PDF format.
The authors would like to acknowledge funding from Greenpeace, although the views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the funding body. The authors would also like to acknowledge comments from James N. Blignaut, Roula Inglesi-Lotz, Nono Nkambule, Kuku Voyi, Jane Olwoch, Melita Steele, Nina Schultz, Rianne Teule, Fiona Musana, and participants at the external costs of coal workshop. All remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the authors.
African Development Bank (AfDB). (2009). Executive summary of South Africa: environmental impact assessment for the Medupi power plant project of Eskom. Available at: http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Environmental-and-Social-Assessments/ESIA%20Ex%20Summary%20of%20Medupi%20Coal%20Power%20Plant%20July%201%20revised%20Final-ram-1.pdf (accessed on 7 August 2011). [ Links ]
Baumol, W.J. and Oats, W.E. (1988). Theory of environmental policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [ Links ]
Bhattacharyya, S. (1997). An estimation of environmental costs of coal-based thermal power generation of India. International Journal of Energy Res, 21: 289 -298. [ Links ]
Blignaut, J. (2012). Climate change: the opportunity cost of Medupi and Kusile power stations. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 23(4): 67-75. [ Links ]
Boyle, K.J. and Bergstrom, J.C. (1992). Benefit transfer studies: Myths, pragmatism, and idealism. Water Resources Research, 28(3): 657-663. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-www.agu.org.innopac.up.ac.za/pubs/crossref/1992/91WR02591.shtml (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Büke, T. and Köne, A.C. (2010). Valuing health effects of natural radionuclides released from Yatagan power plant. Energy and Power Engineering, 46: 1 -72 . [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://www.scirp.org/journal/epe (accessed on 16 October 2012).
Bull, R.J. (2001). Thresholds in toxic responses to chemicals and radiation and their use in risk assessment and regulation. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://www.nrwa.org/benefits/whitepapers/risks/risks10/risk10.doc (accessed on 16 October 2012).
Charola, A.E., Pühringer, J. and Steiger, M. (2007). Gypsum: a review of its role in the deterioration of building materials. Environmental Geology, 52(2): 339-352. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-www.springerlink.com.innopac.up.ac.za/content/41534g34621160n4/ (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Department of Energy. (2009). Digest of South African energy statistics 2009. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://www.energy.gov.za/files/media/explained/2009%20Digest%20PDF%20version.pdf (accessed on 12 July 2011).
Department of Energy. (2010). South African energy synopsis 2010. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://www.energy.gov.za/files/media/explained/2010/South_African_Energy_Synopsis_2010.pdf (accessed on 8 July 2011).
Dominici, FF, Peng, R.D., Bell, M.L., Pham, L., McDermott, A., Zeger, S.L. and Samet, J.M. (2006). Fine particulate air pollution and hospital admission for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Journal of the American Medical Association, 295(10): 1127-1134. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-jama.ama-assn.org.innopac.up.ac.za/content/295/10/1127.full.pdf+html (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Dutkiewicz, R.K. and De Villiers, M.G. (1993). Social cost of electricity production. Engineering research, Report for the National Energy Council, Pretoria. [ Links ]
Epstein, PR., Buonocore, J.J., Eckerle, K., Hendryx, M., Stout III, B.M., Heinberg, R., Clapp, R.W., May, B., Reinhart, N.L., Ahern, M.M., Doshi, S.K. and Glustrom, L. (2011). Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1219(February): 73-98. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-onlinelibrary.wiley.com.innopac.up.ac.za/doi/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05890.x/pdf (accessed on 12 July 2011).
Eskom. (2011). Eskom Integrated Report 2011. Johannesburg: Eskom. [ Links ]
ETSU. (1995). Externalities of fuel cycles: 'ExternE'project summary report. Report no 1. Harwell: [ Links ]
ETSU. European Commission. (1995). ExternE: Externalities of energy. Vol. 1 - 6. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. [ Links ]
European Commission. (1999). ExternE: Externalities of energy. Vol. 1 - 6. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. [ Links ]
Faaij, A., Meuleman, B. and Turkenburg, W. (1998). Externalities of biomass based electricity production compared with power generation form coal in the Netherlands. Biomass Bionerg, 14: 125 - 147. [ Links ]
Friedrich, R. and Voss, A. (1993). External costs of electricity generation. Energy Policy, 21(12): 114 - 122. [ Links ]
Glinianaia, S.V., Rankin, J., Bell, R., Pless-Mulloli, T. and Howel, D. (2004). Particulate air pollution and fetal health: A systematic review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiology, 15: 36-45. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://ehs.sph.berkeley.edu/krsmith/CRA/lbw/Glianianaia_2004.pdf (accessed on 16 October 2012).
Hainoun, A., Almoustafa, A. and Aldin, M.S. (2009). Estimating the health damage costs of Syrian electricity generation system using impact pathway approach. Energy, 35(2010): 628-638. [ Links ]
Hermanus, M.A. (2007). Occupational health and safety in mining-status, new developments and concerns. The Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 107(August): 531 - 538. [ Links ]
Hohmeyer, O. (1988). Social costs of energy consumption. Berlin: Springer Verlag. [ Links ]
Inglesi-Lotz, R. and Blignaut, J. (201s). Estimating the opportunity cost of water for the Kusile and Medupi coal-fired electricity power plants in South Africa. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 23(4): 76-84. [ Links ]
King, D.M. and Mazzotta, M.J. (2000). Methods, Section 8: Benefit Transfer Method. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://www.ecosystemvaluation.org/benefit_transfer.htm (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Klaassen, G. and Riahi, K. (2007). Internalizing externalities of electricity generation: An analysis with MESSAGE-MACRO. Energy Policy, 35: 815 - 827. [ Links ]
Künzli, N., Kaiser, R., Medina, S., Studnicka, M., Chanel, O., Filliger, P., Herry, M., Horak, F., Puybonnieux-Texier, V, Quénel, P, Schneider, J., Seethaler, R., Vergnaud, J. and Sommer, H. (2000). Public-health impact of outdoor and traffic-related air pollution: a European assessment. The Lancet, 365(9232): 795-801. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-www.sciencedirect.com.innopac.up.ac.za/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6T1B-43P3TK1-9-3&_cdi=4886&_user=59388&_pii=S0140673600026532&_origin=&_coverDate=09%2F02%2F2000&_sk=996430767&view=c&wchp=dGLbVzW-zSkWW&md5=49f116bda5f5da1d77dd192b47420b84&ie=/s (accessed on 12 July 2011).
Levy, J.I., Baxter, L.K. and Schwartz, J. (2009). Uncertainty and variability in health-related damages from coal-fired power plants in the United States. Risk Analysis, 29: 1000-1014. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-onlinelibrary.wiley.com.innopac.up.ac.za/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01227.x/pdf (accessed on 12 July 2011).
Maddison, D. (1999). The plausibility of the ExternE estimates of the external effects of electricity production. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 99-04. London: University College London and University of East Anglia. [ Links ]
Mark Wood Consultants. (2007). Independent review -Eskom's proposed coal fired power station in the Witbank area. Johannesburg: Eskom. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://recruitmenteskom.co.za/conten1/AnnexSMarkWRevFeb07.pdf (accessed on 15 September 2011).
MPG. (2011). Nkangala District Municipality. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://www.mpumalanga.gov.za/munic/municipality_nkangala.htm#emalahleni (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Ninham Shand. (2007). Environmental impact assessment process: Proposed coal-fired power station and associated infrastructure in the Witbank area. Final environmental impact report. Sandton: Eskom. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://recruitment.eskom.co.za/contert/DEIR~2.pdf (accessed on 15 August 2011).
Nkambule, N.P. and Blignaut, J. (2012). The external costs of coal mining: the case of collieries supplying Kusile power station. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 23(4): 85-93. [ Links ]
Norman, R., Groenewald, P, Vos, T., Laubscher, R., van Walbeek, C., Saloojee, Y, Sitas, F, Bradshaw, D. and S.A.C.R.A.C. (2007). Estimating the burden of disease attributable to smoking in South Africa in 2000. SAJM, 97(7): 782 -790. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-www.samj.org.za.innopac.up.ac.za/index.php/samj/article/viewFile/661/156 (accessed on 25 June 2011).
Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Resources for the Future [ORNL/RfR]. (1995). Estimating the fuel cycle externalities: analytical methods and issues (Reports 2-8). Washington: McGraw-Hill Utility Data Institute.
Ottinger, R.L., Wooley, D.R., Robinson, N.A., Hodas, D.R. and Babb, S. (1991). Environmental costs of electricity. New York: Oceana. [ Links ]
Owen, A.D. (2004). Environmental externalities, market distortions and the economies of renewable energy technologies. The Energy Journal, 25(3): 127-156. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-ceem.unsw.edu.au.innopac.up.ac.za/content/userDocs/Ej2004.pdf (accessed on 12 July 2011).
Pearce, D., Bann, C. and Georgiou, S. (1992). The social cost of fuel cycles report to the UK Department of Trade and Industry. London: HMSO. [ Links ]
Pearce, D. and Turner, R.K. (1990). Economics of natural resources and the environment. Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf. [ Links ]
Pope III, C.A., Ezzati, M. and Dockery, D.W. (2009). Fine-particulate air pollution and life expectancy in the United States. The New England Journal of Medicine, 360: 376-86. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-www.nejm.org.innopac.up.ac.za/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMsa0805646 (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Rabl, A. (2011). Report n°4: How Much to Spend for the Protection of Health and Environment: A Framework for the Evaluation of Choices. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://www.institut.veolia.org/en/cahiers/protection-health/impact-analysis/functions-response.aspx (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Rafaj, P. and Kypreos, S. (2007). Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: analysis with global multi-regional MARKAL model. Energy Policy, 35: 828 - 843. [ Links ]
Ross, M.H. and Murray, J. (2004). Occupational respiratory disease in mining. Occupational Medicine, 54(5): 304 - 310. [ Links ]
Rowe, R., Bernow, S., Bird, L., Callaway, J.M., Chestnut, L.G., Eldrige, M.M., Lang, C.M., Latimer, D.A., Murdoch, J.C., Ostro, B.D., Patterson, A.D., Rai, D.A. and White, D.E. (1994). New York State environmental externalities cost study, Report 2: methodology. Albany, New York: RCG/Haigler, Bailly, Inc. & Empire State Electric Research Corporation. [ Links ]
Rowe, R.D., Chestnut, L.G., Lang, C.M., Bernow, S.S. and White, D.E. (1995). The New York environmental externalities cost study: summary of approach and results. Paper presented at the Workshop on the External Costs of Energy, Brussels, 30 - 31 January. [ Links ]
Sakulniyomporn, S., Kubaha, K. and Chullabodhi, C. (2011). External costs of fossil electricity generation: Health-based assessment in Thailand. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15: 3470 - 3479. [ Links ]
Sarnat, J.A., Schwartz, J., Catalano, PJ. and Suh, H.H. (2001). Gaseous pollutants in particulate matter epidemiology: confounders or surrogates? Environ Health Perspective, 109(10): 1053 - 1061. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.innopac.up.ac.za/pmc/articles/PMC1242083/pdf/ehp0109-001053.pdf (accessed on 12 July 2011).
Schreurs, M.A. (2011). Transboundary cooperation to address acid rain: Europe, North America, and East Asia compared. In Dinar, S. (ed.). Beyond resource wars: Scarcity, environmental degradation, and international cooperation. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. [ Links ]
Schuman, M. and Cavanagh, R. (1982). A model conservation and electric plan for the Pacific Northwest. Seattle: NCAC. [ Links ]
Scire, J.S., Strimaitis, D.G. and Yamartino, R.J. (2000). A user's guide for the CALPUFF dispersion model (version 5). MA: Earth Tech Inc. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://www.src.com/calpuff/download/CALPUFF_UsersGuide.pdf (accessed on 20 August 2011).
Spalding-Fecher, R. and Matibe, D.K. (2003). Electricity and externalities in South Africa. Energy Policy, 31: 721-734. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-www.sci-encedirect.com.innopac.up.ac.za/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6V2W-46YXJKX-4-3&_cdi=5713&_user=59388&_pii=S0301421502001234&_origin=&_coverDate=06%2F30%2F2003&_sk=999689991&view=c&wchp=dGLzVlb-zSkWb&md5=01c733b3fd0700236650f946ba4b2323&ie=/s (accessed on 25 June 2011).
Spalding-Fecher, R. (2005). Health benefits of electrification in developing countries: a quantitative assessment in South Africa. Energy for Sustainable Development, IX(1): 23 - 32. [ Links ]
Synergistics. (2011). New Largo Colliery - Draft Environmental Scoping Report. Report number S0403/NLC/SR02. Johannesburg: Synergistics. [ Links ]
Theriault, G., Goldberg, M., Miller, A., Armstrong, B., Guénel, P, Deadman, J., Imbernon, E., To, T., Chevalier, A., Cyr, D. and Wall, C. (1994). Cancer risks associated with occupational exposure to magnetic fields among electric utility workers in Ontario and Quebec, Canada, and France: 1970-1989. American Journal of Epidemiology, 139(6): 550 - 572. [ Links ]
Thomas, R. and Scorgie, Y. (2006). Air quality impact assessment for the proposed new coal-fired power station (Kendal North in the Witbank area. Sandton: Eskom. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://recruitment.eskom.co.za/conten^Airqualitypart1.pdf and http://recruitmenteskom.co.za/conten1/Airqualitypart2.pdf (accessed on 15 August 2011).
Thopil, G.A. and Pouris, A. (2010). An overview of the electricity externality analysis in South Africa within the international context. South African Journal of Science, 106(11): 1 - 6. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-search.sabinet.co.za.innopac.up.ac.za/WebZ/Authorize?sessionid=0&bad=ejour/ejour_bad-search.html&portal=ejournal&next=images/ejour/sajsci/sajsci_v106_n10_11_a15.pdf (accessed on 10 July 2011).
Turpie, J., Winkler, H. and Midgeley, G. (2004). Economic impacts of climate change in South Africa: a preliminary assessment of mitigated damage costs. In Blignaut, J.N. and De Wit, M.P (eds). Sustainable options: economic development lessons from applied environmental resource economics in South Africa. Cape Town: University of Cape Town Press. [ Links ]
Van Horen, C. (1996). Counting the social costs: Electricity and externalities in South Africa. Cape Town: University of Cape Town Press and Elan Press. [ Links ]
Vrhovcak, M.B., Tomsic, Z. and Debrecin, N. (2005). External costs of electricity production: case study Croatia. Energy Policy, 33: 1385 - 1395. [ Links ]
Wassung, N. (2010). Water scarcity and electricity generation in South Africa, Part 1: Water use in the coal-to-electricity process. Unpublished thesis. University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-scholar.sun.ac.za.innopac.up.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10019.1/5858/wassung_water_2010.pdf?sequence=1 (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Zvereva, E.L., Toivonen, E. and Kozlov, M.V. (2008). Changes in species richness of vascular plants under the impact of air pollution: a global perspective. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17(3): 305-319. [ Links ] [Online] Available at: http://0-onlinelibrary.wiley.com.innopac.up.ac.za/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00366.x/pdf (accessed on 24 August 2011).
Received: 30 November 2011
Revised 10 October 2012