RESEARCH LETTERS

 

A climate-based model for malaria prediction in southeastern Africa

 

 

M.R. Jury^{I, II}; A.D. Kanemba^III

^IGeography Department, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa 3886, South Africa.
^IICurrent affiliation: University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico 00681, U.S.A.
^IIITanzanian Meteorological Agency, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

 

 

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ABSTRACT

Malaria is a major health problem in southeastern Africa. In this study, we explore relationships between malaria and regional climate. Malaria incidence data from the eastern border of South Africa and Swaziland over a 33-year period were de-trended and used to identify epidemics. Composite weather maps were then constructed for seasons with high and low malaria incidence and evaluated. Surface-air temperature rose over the east coast during malaria epidemics and rainfall doubled over a large area including Swaziland, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique. Remote climatic signals that anticipated malaria epidemics were found in composite analyses, and a statistical model was developed for prediction. Upper-level winds over the Western Pacific were found to predict 57% of malaria variance at a lead time of 6 months.

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Received 14 October 2005.
Accepted 6 February 2007.

 

 

† Author for correspondence. E-mail: jury@uprm.edu