Abstract

BIRCH, C.. Impact of discount rates on cut-off grades for narrow tabular gold deposits. J. S. Afr. Inst. Min. Metall. [online]. 2016, vol.116, n.2, pp.115-122. ISSN 2411-9717.  http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2411-9717/2016/v116n2a2.

The purpose of this study was to establish the impact of discount rates on cut-off grades for narrow tabular gold deposits as characterized by the goldfields of the Witwatersrand Basin in South Africa. There are various methods available for determining the cut-off grade, from simple breakeven calculations to sophisticated software packages that consider a variety of inputs to optimize the cut-off grade. For this study a simple financial model was created in Microsoft Excel^® that links the ore flow, block listing, and the cash flow. This allows the cut-off grade to be optimized considering how the cost of capital and chosen discount rate affect the cash flow. The discounted cash flow (DCF) and resultant net present value (NPV) are a widely used valuation method for production properties according to the South African Code for the Reporting of Mineral Asset Valuation (SAMVAL Code). The financial model in this study utilizes the Solver function, as well as simple Microsoft Excel spreadsheet formulae to optimize the NPV. Solver was chosen as it is a standard feature in Excel and thus no additional software costs are incurred beyond the basic Microsoft Office suite. For the purpose of this study, just narrow tabular gold deposits of the Witwatersrand Basin were considered. An example of a typical ore block listing, as well as the costing figures, was obtained from an operating gold mine. The results obtained from the study financial model were compared to the current cut-off grades obtained from the mine using their proprietary optimizer program, and were found to be comparable. The methodology utilized for this study thus appears valid. The cut-off grade was optimized considering the cash flow, which includes the variable mineral resource royalty tax, the variable gold income tax, as well as the discount rate. By comparing the resultant NPVs using discount rates of zero, 9%, and 12%, the impact of the discount rate on cut-off grades, resultant life of mine, and average mining grades (AMG) could be compared for the example ore block listing. The South African Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (SAMREC Code) does not require operations to state if a discount rate was considered in determining mineable reserves. Mining companies approach the question of applying discount rates in determining their cut-off grades, and thus mine planning strategy, in different ways. Due to the negative impact that optimizing purely on NPV has on the life of mine, some choose to optimize only on profit. Other companies have reverted to utilizing pay limits as their primary grade planning strategy. The calculated cut-off grade is then considered to be another planning indicator rather than a hard determination of mineable reserves.

Keywords : discount rates; cut-off grades; discounted cash flow (DCF); net present value (NPV); optimization; Microsoft Excel; Solver.

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