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South African Journal of Industrial Engineering

versão On-line ISSN 1012-277X

Resumo

WANG, Xiaojia; CHEN, Zhiqiang  e  YANG, Shanlin. Forecasting modeling and simulation analysis of a power system in China, based on a class of semi-parametric regression approach. S. Afr. J. Ind. Eng. [online]. 2012, vol.23, n.3, pp. 154-168. ISSN 1012-277X.

Forecasting electricity consumption is one of the most important challenges in electricity system planning. This paper presents an improved semi-parametric regression model using the Student distribution function of residual to replace the nonparametric component of the traditional semi-parametric model, thus eliminating the effects of the residual disturbance term. Compared with general linear models, the models make statistical inferences and can automatically regulate the boundary effect, which gives the forecast result a higher accuracy. A case study using data from China is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

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