South African Journal of Industrial Engineering
versão On-line ISSN 2224-7890
versão impressa ISSN 1012-277X
WANG, Xiaojia; CHEN, Zhiqiang e YANG, Shanlin. Forecasting modeling and simulation analysis of a power system in China, based on a class of semi-parametric regression approach. S. Afr. J. Ind. Eng. [online]. 2012, vol.23, n.3, pp.154-168. ISSN 2224-7890.
Forecasting electricity consumption is one of the most important challenges in electricity system planning. This paper presents an improved semi-parametric regression model using the Student distribution function of residual to replace the nonparametric component of the traditional semi-parametric model, thus eliminating the effects of the residual disturbance term. Compared with general linear models, the models make statistical inferences and can automatically regulate the boundary effect, which gives the forecast result a higher accuracy. A case study using data from China is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.