Resumo

PRETORIUS, L.  e  BENADE, S.J.. A systems dynamics approach to competing technologies: Exploring uncertainty of interaction and market parameters. S. Afr. J. Ind. Eng. [online]. 2011, vol.22, n.2, pp.27-39. ISSN 2224-7890.

Technology can be identified as the result of an innovation process that may be time-dependent. Furthermore, technology is both an input to the innovation process and an output of it. When two competing technologies are diffused into the market, they are evaluated as a technology system by means of a systems dynamics approach. It is shown that systems thinking can be used initially to identify and assess the important factors that influence the competitive behaviour of the two technologies. Interesting dynamics of this technology management system are presented and discussed in the context of uncertainty of interaction between the two technologies. It is specifically shown that the life span of the existing technology, which resists competition, may be adversely affected under conditions of uncertainty. The effect of uncertainty in more than one systems dynamics model parameter - specifically, the interaction and market parameter in the competing technology system - is also addressed. The Lotka-Volterra approach of predator-prey interaction is used to model the interaction between and diffusion of the two technologies in the system. A qualitative assessment of the systems dynamics model without uncertainty is attempted in the exploration of a real case study of two competing technologies.

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