South African Journal of Industrial Engineering
versão On-line ISSN 1012-277X
RAO, K.S. Madhava e MOSEKI, K.K.. Analysing volatility in equity indices – A Markov approach for Botswana domestic company indices. S. Afr. J. Ind. Eng. [online]. 2011, vol.22, n.1, pp. 83-98. ISSN 1012-277X.
In financial economics, forecasting volatility in stock indices and currency returns has received considerable attention in the last two decades. Many traditional econometric methods forecast asset returns by a point prediction of volatility. The central contribution of this paper is to suggest an alternative approach for modelling and related analysis of asset returns. In this approach, the volatility in stock returns is defined in terms of categories depending on the mean of stock returns and its standard error. This classification naturally allows the study of volatility in terms of a Markov model. The approach suggested here will be of interest to academics, stock market investors, and analysts.