Resumo

KAVESE, Kambale  e  PHIRI, Andrew. Micro-simulations of a dynamic supply and use tables economy-wide Leontief-based model for the South African economy. S. Afr. j. econ. manag. sci. [online]. 2020, vol.23, n.1, pp.1-13. ISSN 2222-3436.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v23i1.3431.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has not fully recovered from the 2008 global recession. The World Bank has predicted that South Africa will be one of the worst performers in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 with tepid growth of 1.3% which is far below the National Development Plan targets growth of 5.4% required a year to reduce unemployment, create decent jobs and generate enough revenue for social development. AIM: We aim to examine whether changes in the components of final demand (changes in government spending, household consumption expenditure, exports, investment spending) have a considerable effect on the sector's gross value added, job creation and tax revenue generation and whether there were changes in the exogenous final demand in die post-recession period. SETTING: We focus on building supply and use tables based on 62 different sectors of the South African economy. METHODS: An economy-wide Leontief multiplier-based model calibrated on a supply and use framework and a micro-simulation model is used to assess post-recession trends in macroeconomic, labour and fiscal multipliers for South Africa. RESULTS: The simulations show that during the post-recession era, the effect of exogenous shock in the economy, like an increase in investment spending, although positive, yields a smaller return in terms of tax revenue, job creation and economic growth. At sector level, the results show that the inter-industry links and industry-consumer links have therefore weakened. CONCLUSION: Our findings imply that the persisting low growth trajectory associated with weaker inter-industry linkages could be exacerbated, while the fiscal austerity measures associated with weaker forward and backword tax linkages could be prolonged. We recommend government should follow a priorities-based spending policy that yields optimal socioeconomic returns.

Palavras-chave : supply and use tables; fiscal multipliers; employment multipliers; micro-simulations; South Africa.

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