Abstract

MPHOLO, M. et al. Lesotho electricity demand profile from 2010 to 2030. J. energy South. Afr. [online]. 2021, vol.32, n.1, pp.41-57. ISSN 2413-3051.  http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2021/v32i1a7792.

This study undertook a 2010 to 2030 electricity demand profile for Lesotho, with 2010 used as the base year. The demand forecast was modelled using the International Atomic Energy Agency Model for Analysis of Energy Demand, largely because of its proven ability to accurately forecast demand in developing economies based on socio-economic, technology and demography variables. The model correlates well with the actual data, where data exists, and predicts that by 2030 Lesotho will achieve a national electrification rate of 54.2%, with 95% for urban households and 14% for rural households, up from 19.4%, 54.1% and 1.8% respectively in the base year. Moreover, in the same period, the forecast for the most likely scenario gives the following results: the maximum demand will increase to 211 MW from 121 MW; the annual average household energy consumption will continue its decline to 1 009 kWh/household from 1 998 kWh/household; and the total consumption will increase to 1 128 284 MWh from 614 868 MWh. The overall low growth rate is attributed to the consistently declining average household consumption that is contrary to international norms. The forecast results gave a root mean square percentage error of 1.5% and mean absolute percentage error of 1.3%, which implied good correlation with the actual data and, hence, confidence in the accuracy of the results.Highlights Between 2030 and 2010: • Achievement of national electrification rate of 54.2% up from 19.4%. • Electrification: 95% urban, 14% rural households, from 54.1% and 1.8% respectively. • The maximum demand will increase to 211 MW from 121 MW. • Annual average household consumption will decline to 1 009 kWh/household from 1,998 kWh/household.

Keywords : MAED; energy demand forecast; electrification rate; declining average household consumption.

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