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Journal of Energy in Southern Africa

versão On-line ISSN 2413-3051

Resumo

CHIKOBVU, Delson  e  SIGAUKE, Caston. Modelling influence of temperature on daily peak electricity demand in South Africa. J. energy South. Afr. [online]. 2013, vol.24, n.4, pp. 63-70. ISSN 2413-3051.

The paper discusses the modelling of the influence of temperature on average daily electricity demand in South Africa using a piecewise linear regression model and the generalized extreme value theory approach for the period - 2000 to 2010. Empirical results show that electricity demand in South Africa is highly sensitive to cold temperatures. Extreme low average daily temperatures of the order of 8.20C are very rare in South Africa. They only occur about 8 times in a year and result in huge increases in electricity demand.

Palavras-chave : Extreme value theory; piecewise linear regression; regression splines; temperature.

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