Abstract

WANG, Y; WANG, L  and  SUN, L. What leads to severe multi-vehicle crashes on mountainous expressways in Western China?. J. S. Afr. Inst. Civ. Eng. [online]. 2022, vol.64, n.1, pp.63-70. ISSN 2309-8775.  http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2309-8775/2022/v64no1a6.

This paper investigates the occurrence and severity of collisions involving multiple vehicles on mountain expressways (MMEs) in Western China. A total of 1 521 crash samples occurring on one typical mountain expressway in Shaanxi, China, between 2012 and 2017, were analysed through a partially constrained generalised ordered logit to identify the significant risk factors contributing to the severity of such crashes. Elasticity analysis was performed to quantify the effects of each independent explanatory variable on the collision severity outcomes. Fourteen total explanatory variables were found to have a significant and pronounced influence on the likelihood of MME crashes. These include the type of collision, the at-fault driver's age, driving while fatigued, cell phone use while driving, alcohol-impaired driving, speeding, risky following and dangerous overtaking behaviour, sharp curves in the roadway and slippery pavement conditions, seasons, day of the week, time of day, and adverse weather (rain/snow/fog). The impacts of the variables on the collision severity were also explored. Taken together, the findings may serve as a useful guide for developing legislation and technical countermeasures to ensure traffic safety on mountain expressways in Western China.

Keywords : multiple-vehicle crash; mountain expressway; risk factor; partially constrained generalised ordered logit model; elasticity analysis.

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