Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering
versão On-line ISSN 2309-8775
OKMEN, Ö e OZTAş, A. Uncertainty evaluation with fuzzy schedule risk analysis model in activity networks of construction projects. J. S. Afr. Inst. Civ. Eng. [online]. 2014, vol.56, n.2, pp. 10-20. ISSN 2309-8775.
ABSTRACT Construction projects are prone to uncertainty due to various risk factors, such as unexpected weather conditions and soil properties. Depending on this, the actual duration of activities frequently deviates from the estimated duration time in either favourable or adverse directions. For this reason, evaluation of uncertainty is required to make the correct decisions when managing construction project network schedules. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer-aided schedule risk analysis model - the Fuzzy Schedule Risk Analysis Model - to evaluate uncertain construction activity networks when activity duration and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilises Monte Carlo Simulation and a fuzzified Critical Path Method procedure conducted by fuzzy sets and fuzzy operations. The paper also includes an example application of the model to a housing project. The findings of this application show that the model operates well and produces realistic results in capturing correlation indirectly between activity durations and risk factors regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.
Palavras-chave : construction management; scheduling; fuzzy sets; simulation modelling; risk analysis.