SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.56 número2A CPM-based scheduling method for construction projects with fuzzy sets and fuzzy operationsEffect of corrosion products on bond strength and flexural behaviour of reinforced concrete slabs índice de autoresíndice de assuntospesquisa de artigos
Home Pagelista alfabética de periódicos  

Serviços Personalizados

Artigo

Indicadores

Links relacionados

  • Em processo de indexaçãoCitado por Google
  • Em processo de indexaçãoSimilares em Google

Compartilhar


Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering

versão On-line ISSN 2309-8775
versão impressa ISSN 1021-2019

Resumo

OKMEN, Ö  e  OZTAş, A. Uncertainty evaluation with fuzzy schedule risk analysis model in activity networks of construction projects. J. S. Afr. Inst. Civ. Eng. [online]. 2014, vol.56, n.2, pp.10-20. ISSN 2309-8775.

ABSTRACT Construction projects are prone to uncertainty due to various risk factors, such as unexpected weather conditions and soil properties. Depending on this, the actual duration of activities frequently deviates from the estimated duration time in either favourable or adverse directions. For this reason, evaluation of uncertainty is required to make the correct decisions when managing construction project network schedules. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer-aided schedule risk analysis model - the Fuzzy Schedule Risk Analysis Model - to evaluate uncertain construction activity networks when activity duration and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilises Monte Carlo Simulation and a fuzzified Critical Path Method procedure conducted by fuzzy sets and fuzzy operations. The paper also includes an example application of the model to a housing project. The findings of this application show that the model operates well and produces realistic results in capturing correlation indirectly between activity durations and risk factors regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

Palavras-chave : construction management; scheduling; fuzzy sets; simulation modelling; risk analysis.

        · texto em Inglês     · Inglês ( pdf )

 

Creative Commons License Todo o conteúdo deste periódico, exceto onde está identificado, está licenciado sob uma Licença Creative Commons