Resumen

DUVENHAGE, André. Patterns of instability in the South African political environment - a tendency extrapolation. Tydskr. geesteswet. [online]. 2023, vol.63, n.4, pp.804-835. ISSN 2224-7912.  http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2224-7912/2023/v63n4a4.

This research entails an investigation of the political environment aimed at key variables in the South African society, politics and economy, and the short-term impact thereof on political stability/instability in South Africa. The central point of departure of this study is that politics in South Africa has reached a tipping point and that many changes are currently taking place, with far-reaching implications for the political, economic and social order, structure and general stability. In terms of a brief conceptualisation of state, weakening of the state, political system and system stability, an analytical framework is used to identify key factors in the political, economic, societal and international environments, as well as to indicate the impact and possible impact thereof on stability/instability. With this theoretical, analytical framework as general point of departure, and the extensive use of factual details (as well as data, figures and empirical material) to verify assumptions and points of departure, the core conclusion of this research (the trend extrapolation) is that a period of serious political instability stares South Africa in the face on the shorter and medium term, that cannot merely be ignored. Given such dire circumstances it should be evident that fundamental reform is imperative in order to prevent future patterns of political instability and institutional degeneration.

Palabras clave : South African politics; political environment investigation; political tipping point; tendency extrapolation; system stability; political instability; patrimonialism; elections; opinion polls.

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