Services on Demand
Article
Indicators
Related links
- Cited by Google
- Similars in Google
Share
South African Journal of Science
On-line version ISSN 1996-7489
Print version ISSN 0038-2353
Abstract
WELTE, Alex. Relating incidence to 'recent infection' prevalence: application to HIV. S. Afr. j. sci. [online]. 2008, vol.104, n.5-6, pp.199-202. ISSN 1996-7489.
I present a systematic approach to the derivation of relationships between disease incidence and the prevalence of an experimentally defined state of 'recent infection'. These depend, in general, on details of the population dynamic and epidemiological history, as well as the physiology of early disease progression. The general relations facilitate the evaluation of numerous approximate schemes that could be used for the purpose of estimating incidence from snapshot surveys. Methods for calibrating an incidence/prevalence relation from follow-up studies, for use in subsequent snapshot surveys, are considered. Example data from an ongoing follow-up study are analysed. Statistical power and prospects for practical implementation in southern Africa are also considered.