Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy
On-line version ISSN 2411-9717
BOTIN, J.; DEL CASTILLO, M.F. and GUZMAN, R.. A real options application to manage risk related to intrinsic variables of a mine plan: a case study on Chuquicamata Underground Mine Project. J. S. Afr. Inst. Min. Metall. [online]. 2013, vol.113, n.7, pp. 01-10. ISSN 2411-9717.
Traditional risk quantification methods provide little information on the sources of risk, and tend to produce static over-conservative evaluations, which do not account for changes in the performance of the project. Capital investment decisions for large mining projects require more complex risk evaluation models that include the value of flexibility and the different risk levels associated with uncertainty on project variables (price, grade, dilution, and production rates, among many other). In this context, real option valuation (ROV) methods have proven potential to quantify the risk associated with such variables and integrate alternative scenarios and management strategies into the evaluation process. In this paper, a risk quantification model is developed that successfully quantifies the risk associated with dilution, as a function of production rate. This model is then validated in a case study on the Chuquicamata Underground Mine project.
Keywords : real options; risk management; risk quantification; dilution; minine planning.