Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy
On-line version ISSN 2411-9717
JOUGHIN, W.C.; JAGER, A.; NEZOMBA, E. and RWODZI, L.. A risk evaluation model for support design in Bushveld Complex underground mines: part I-Description of the model. J. S. Afr. Inst. Min. Metall. [online]. 2012, vol.112, n.2, pp. 83-94. ISSN 2411-9717.
A risk evaluation model has been developed, that enables the quantification of expected injuries and economic losses resulting from rockfalls associated with a support system in a given geotechnical environment. This enables the comparison of different support systems based on the expected frequency of injuries and the total cost of the support system, including the expected economic losses. The model takes into consideration the variability in joint orientations and joint strength within the geotechnical environment and the variability and quality of support systems. The quantification of the benefits of other rockfall risk-mitigating strategies, such as the effectiveness of barring or monitoring, are also incorporated in the model. The risk model is described in this paper and the validation of the model and case studies are described in Part II.
Keywords : risk evaluation; risk based design; probabilistic design; statistical keyblock analysis; support design; joint mapping.