Scielo RSS <![CDATA[Journal of Energy in Southern Africa]]> vol. 32 num. 1 lang. en <![CDATA[SciELO Logo]]> <![CDATA[<b>A complex systems view of climate and development issues in South African coal power expansion</b>]]> The implementation of climate change policy in South Africa inevitably requires decision-makers to navigate issues of development. This paper explores some of the implications of this requirement by examining the case of a proposed new independent coal-fired power producing plant, Khanyisa, in the province of Mpumalanga from the perspective of complexity studies, an emerging transdisciplinary field. Complexity thinking re-casts the Khanyisa project in a whole-system view, encouraging an active consideration of scale, perspectives, different knowledges, and cumulative impacts. In so doing, tensions both between and within dimensions of climate mitigation and development are quickly revealed, a complexity which is theorised in complexity studies as the raw material for systemic transformation. This whole-system conceptualisation also undermines incremental and relative arguments that Khanyisa mitigates greenhouse gas emissions. Further, the complex systemic property of non-linearity suggests that the Khanyisa decision is more significant than its power generation capacity indicates. Attention to the conceptual simplification inherent in 'development' highlights what is lost through such simplification, as well as what is gained, and by whom. Finally, complexity thinking foregrounds the multiple scales at which the systemic climate mitigation and development implications of Khanyisa play out. Currently there is very little policy-making capacity nationally, regionally or in eMalahleni to look at alternatives, or 'spaces of possibility' through the complexity lens for both development and climate mitigation. This case argues that new policy processes are needed, which go far beyond policy and regulatory processes steeped in path dependencies and incrementalism.Highlights • The case reveals the complex entanglement of climate and development issues as raw material for systemic transformation. • A whole system and scalar conceptualisation, paying attention to non-linearities, and the exercise of power through simplifications suggest productive areas of focus for policymakers • New policy processes are needed, which go far beyond policy and regulatory processes steeped in path dependencies and incrementalism. <![CDATA[<b>Estimating wind power generation capacity in Zimbabwe using vertical wind profile extrapolation techniques: A case study</b>]]> Only 40% of Zimbabwe's population has access to electricity. The greater proportion of the power is generated from thermal stations, with some from hydro and solar energy sources. However, there is little investment in the use of wind for electricity generation except for small installations in the Eastern Highlands, as Zimbabwe generally has wind speeds which are too low to be utilised for electricity generation. This paper presents the use of vertical wind profile extrapolation methods to determine the potential of generating electricity from wind at different hub heights in Zimbabwe, using the Hellman and exponential laws to estimate wind speeds. The estimated wind speeds are used to determine the potential of generating electricity from wind. Mangwe district in Matabeleland South province of Zimbabwe was used as a test site. Online weather datasets were used to estimate the wind speeds. The investigation shows that a 2.5kW wind turbine installation in Mangwe can generate more than 3MWh of energy per annum at hub heights above 40m, which is enough to supply power to a typical Zimbabwean rural village. This result will encourage investment in the use of wind to generate electricity in Zimbabwe.Highlights • Wind power utilisation is low in Zimbabwe. • Vertical wind profile is estimated using extrapolation methods. • Online weather data for soil and water analysis tool was used. • Electricity can viably be generated from wind in Zimbabwe.Data Availability: On request from authors <![CDATA[<b>Evaluation of the coefficient of performance of an air source heat pump unit and an air to water heat pump</b>]]> Air source heat pump (ASHP) water heaters are efficient devices for sanitary hot water heating. The coefficient of performance (COP) of the air to water heat pump (AWHP) is constantly lower than that of the corresponding ASHP unit. The study focused on determining the COP of both the ASHP unit and the AWHP. This was achieved by the implementation of both experimental and simulation methods, with the help of a data acquisition system and the REFPROP software. The system comprised of a 1.2 kW split type ASHP unit and a 150 L high pressure geyser. A power meter, flow meters, temperature sensors, pressure sensors, ambient temperature and relative humidity sensor were installed at precise locations on the split type AWHP. Controlled volumes of 150, 50 and 100 L were drawn off from the AWHP during the morning, afternoon and evening for a year. The average COP for the summer and winter, in terms ofthe input electrical and output thermal energies ofthe AWHP were 3.02 and 2.30. The COPs of the ASHP unit, in terms of the change in the enthalpies ofthe refrigerant at the inlet and the outlet ofthe condenser and the evaporator, were 3.52 and 2.65 respectively. The study showed that the difference between the COP of the ASHP unit and that of the AWHP could be ascribed to the electrical energy consumed by the fan and the water circulation pump during the vapour compression refrigeration cycles. The work provides an energy optimisation opportunity to the manufacturers of this technology, helping to enhance the efficiency and COP of ASHP water heaters.Highlights 1. The COPt ofthe ASHP unit was higher than the COPe ofthe AWHP. 2. The COPe ofthe AWHP was the ratio ofthe input electrical energy consumed and the output thermal energy gained by the stored water. 3. The COPt of the ASHP unit was enthalpies-dependent and a function of inlet and outlet enthalpies of the evaporator and condenser. 4. The inlet and outlet refrigerant temperatures profiles ofthe condenser confirmed thermal energy dissipation. <![CDATA[<b>Lesotho electricity demand profile from 2010 to 2030</b>]]> This study undertook a 2010 to 2030 electricity demand profile for Lesotho, with 2010 used as the base year. The demand forecast was modelled using the International Atomic Energy Agency Model for Analysis of Energy Demand, largely because of its proven ability to accurately forecast demand in developing economies based on socio-economic, technology and demography variables. The model correlates well with the actual data, where data exists, and predicts that by 2030 Lesotho will achieve a national electrification rate of 54.2%, with 95% for urban households and 14% for rural households, up from 19.4%, 54.1% and 1.8% respectively in the base year. Moreover, in the same period, the forecast for the most likely scenario gives the following results: the maximum demand will increase to 211 MW from 121 MW; the annual average household energy consumption will continue its decline to 1 009 kWh/household from 1 998 kWh/household; and the total consumption will increase to 1 128 284 MWh from 614 868 MWh. The overall low growth rate is attributed to the consistently declining average household consumption that is contrary to international norms. The forecast results gave a root mean square percentage error of 1.5% and mean absolute percentage error of 1.3%, which implied good correlation with the actual data and, hence, confidence in the accuracy of the results.Highlights Between 2030 and 2010: • Achievement of national electrification rate of 54.2% up from 19.4%. • Electrification: 95% urban, 14% rural households, from 54.1% and 1.8% respectively. • The maximum demand will increase to 211 MW from 121 MW. • Annual average household consumption will decline to 1 009 kWh/household from 1,998 kWh/household. <![CDATA[<b>Solid fuel use in electrified low-income residential areas in South Africa: The case of KwaDela, Mpumalanga</b>]]> Domestic solid fuel combustion remains a key contributor to indoor and ambient air pollution in low-income settlements. Understanding solid-fuel cost perceptions and burning patterns variability is required for developing sustainable energy policies and applicable site-specific intervention strategies to effectively improve ambient air quality. The purpose of the study was to understand domestic solid fuel use dynamics and trends in KwaDela, a low-income residential area in Mpumalanga. Data were gathered using surveys, questionnaires, observations, and temperature sensors. Findings were that there are two main local sources of wood and coal within the settlement and each household was estimated to consume 1 800 to 2 992.5 kg of coal annually. The maximum amount of coal used per burning event was 9.3 kg, with an average of 4 kg and a standard deviation of ±2.5 kg. Coal and wood purchase price varied depending on their sources, but were cheaper than electricity. In winter, the burning events are longer (four to six hours) than in summer and more (one to three) per day, and start earlier (from 03:00 and 15:30) mainly due to space-heating needs. Cooking, space-heating and boiling water are the major household needs that drive the use of solid fuels in electrified low-income residential areas. The key to improving air quality in such areas is integrating fuel use intervention methods that the residents can afford and are readily accessible.Highlights • Burning events are longer in winter than summer. • Solid fuels are affordable, available, and easily accessible. • Electricity remains sparsely used for domestic purposes. <![CDATA[<b>South Africa's integrated energy planning framework, 2015-2050</b>]]> The Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) was designed to consider South Africa's energy needs from 2015 to 2050, as a guide for energy structural savings and the development of energy policy. The main aim of the Department of Energy is to ensure the security of energy supply. The current energy situation in the country has its gains and challenges. With the growing population and infrastructural development, the country requires prudent measures to meet the country's energy needs for 2020-2050. The country's energy is currently dominated by coal-fired plants, which represent about 70% of the total installed capacity, crude oil contributes about 21%, with only 9% from all other energy sources, including renewables. This paper examines the scope of the IEP framework, key objectives of the IEP, the methodology applied to achieve those objectives, and the projections made for attaining the framework target. The paper further reviews the energy requirements for the key sectors of the economy and analyses the effects of CO2 emissions and the benefits of job creation for the entire period. Despite substantial renewable potential in South Africa, at present it contributes as little as 2% of the energy mix. The global renewable energy policy on CO2 emissions reduction, improvement of energy efficiency and deployment of renewable development are not met in the IEP framework. <![CDATA[<b>South African shale gas economics: Analysis of the breakeven shale gas price required to develop the industry</b>]]> Is Karoo shale gas an economically viable option for providing the gas needed for the South African power grid? Dispatchable power generation is essential for the implementation of a renewable based electric grid system. Natural gas-fuelled generation is proposed to meet this need, with the gas being sourced from the Karoo. However, no exploration has been conducted on this resource and it is not known if it can be produced economically. Based on information from shale developments in other parts of the world and using publicly available information, this analysis calculates the likely price that this gas would require to be economically viable. The likely steps in the process to get to commercial development would be a baseline survey period, a period of exploration and appraisal drilling, followed by a pilot development. The extensive exploration programme would take about four years and likely cost over USD 450 million. This would be followed by a pilot production programme costing approximately USD 180 million. Once commercial development is achieved, a price for the gas of USD 13.67 per GJ would be required. There are a number of factors, including well recovery, well costs, royalties and operating costs that could add to this price and make this gas development less attractive.Highlights • South Africa has significant shale gas potential in the Karoo. • Internationally, LNG delivered prices are currently below USD 10 per GJ. • South Africa shale gas breakeven price would be over USD 13.7 per GJ. • An extensive and expensive exploration programme is required prior to development. <![CDATA[<b>Sustainable energy supply and business collaborations for sustainability, resilience and competitiveness in the Zambian copper industry after Covid-19</b>]]> The mining industry in Zambia is energy-intensive, with hydro energy providing the required energy. But other sources of energy may need to be added, because hydro energy is subject to good rain patterns, threatened by the spectre of climate change, as already indicated by the current prolonged hours of load shedding by state-owned , Zambia Electricity Supply Company. This research looks at state-of-art mining technologies and collaborative business processes that leverage on the expected ramp in copper and cobalt (Cu-Co) global demand post-Covid-19, to help design resilient business systems by manufacturing, source goods and services within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region to lower Cu-Co production costs, and maximise profits through shared resources and bilateral trade agreements. With evidence, projection and predictions by global leaders in the Cu-Co industry, this study evaluates the preparedness and resilience of the Zambian mining industry for sustainable energy supply, environmental sustainability, and suggests some possible business collaborations within the SADC region to share the following resources: metal refineries, transportation of goods and services, expertise and energy supplies within SADC, to enhance business sustainability. The study shows that the resilience of Cu-Co business in resource-rich nations like Zambia is complex and is heavily influenced by investment decisions, stakeholder interests, copper ore grades and extractive process types, reliable power supply, and socio-economic and political issues. The significance of this study is that it proposes some business collaborations within SADC that can increase energy reliability and supply, Cu-Co production, increase business resilience, improve global competitiveness and sustainability by exploring energy efficiency and generation-mix strategy.Highlights • A sustainable energy analysis for Zambia. • Establishing the role of mine multi-national enterprises concerning environmental sustainability. • Proposing copper business resilience collaborations within SADC. • Developing a mining business resilience and sustainability model for sustainable power supply, high production, profitability and global competitiveness.